Science/Engineering/Technical forums

I don't know that I fully buy this argument, but it's interesting.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmark ... 1/id/34441

(I haven't finished reading it yet myself)

Could be we look back and say, this was the heads-up.

You might think ebay is trouble -- we've had both sorts of luck there to be sure, but it's mostly good if you pay attention with the proper skepticism. Nothing like this:

http://blogs.forbes.com/billsinger/2011 ... er-felony/

I'm on the sidelines, but still paying attention. I think there's a cusp coming on -- will this little correction act like the few before, or turn down? Till it makes up it's mind, I'm out.

I liked this link.

http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/strate ... /?mod=mktw

As he says, the object is to be the one rational guy in the room...hard, but it's where the money is.

I've been saying this for months now on Seeking Alpha and other places -- seems to take about this long for the other guys to get it, which is going to help me calibrate my "too early" better.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/ ... rates.html

So, yes, the main reason QE II didn't get some of the stated goals is that the stated goals weren't the actual ones. The real goal was to hand the banks ever more money to help them with their toxic assets without pissing off the public too much more with out and out gifts. They really are all insolvent if they had to mark that stuff to market (the FASB rule on that is suspended for the moment, "for some strange reason") even with this massive additional help - it really is that bad. But, the word's getting out, and they're going to have to find another way to do this if more is required that keeps the public fooled, because this one is toast.

I heard the other day that the total outstanding bad paper in derivatives is now 10 times the world GDP. No way anyone is going to pay off all that bad paper, and we are getting set up for a huge wealth transfer via however that gets resolved in what is normally a completely zero-sum game. Obviously them that has tends to get, and the people on the "correct" side of all those bets are going to want to keep the system that tries to ensure such bets get paid off, going for as long as possible. The people on the wrong side of said bets of course would like to have it all called off...But the fight will be run by whoever can have the most influence now -- no matter which side of the bets they are on. I put that in my "too hard to call fer sure" category for the moment, but in general, them that has....wins.

On a somewhat less dismal note, the finance and dismal science guys often have some of the better humor too. Case in point:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUa3d0sD ... r_embedded



Here's another one of those cartoons, kind of in the spirit of Chris Martenson. A little long but pretty funny in an oddball way. Intended for those who thought they wanted to know how finance really works. Most find out they'd rather not know.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWH5TlbloU



Of course, everyone not short today (or all week) is feeling like this: Or worse, like a chicken: Edit:
More on this more-direct thing later. I was late to the game, having worked for a bunch of these guys -- and too naive to figure out how it worked then. In addition, what their dreams were then weren't achievable by them, then. Dreams do come true if you work hard enough.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO ... re=related

Don't think I'm saying you can't win and shouldn't play. Not where I'm coming from at all. There are despicable cheaters in almost every game. Beating them fair and square is still a possibility.
But understanding still helps you win.

Regulatory capture and short sighted thinking anyone?
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmark ... 1/id/35022

Not really news, just a confirmation that business as usual is still "on".

This was too funny not to share. Evidently there is at least one movie theater that enforces some manners so patrons can duh, actually watch the movie. This means that after a couple warnings on bad behavior, they kick you out, no refund. It's amazing how impolite and self centered some spoiled brats can be and not think they are doing anything wrong. So one such patron who got thrown out then phoned the theater and flamed their voice mail. It was so funny, and the owners have a sense of humor, they converted the call into a PSA shown before films.

http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/20 ... -annoying/

Some of the language is NSFW, but it's pure hilarity if such an obnoxious person has ever crossed your path.

If you're into this stuff and capable of laughing and crying at the same time, read this one:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/275276- ... and-lehman

New heights of cynical humor...and some good lines about everything from HHGTTG to new isotopes of "hopium".

I might have found another guy who tells it like it is -- either that or he's lucky as heck. I saw an interview with him in May, predicting June, and everything he said was totally dead on. I lost that link (it's over at the abysmal bloomberg website, what a crappy design they have) but here's a more recent one.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70646966/

I'll be keeping an eye on this guy -- even a stopped clock is right twice a day and maybe it was luck, but that time he was right and for the right reasons....guys like that aren't giving advice on every street corner.

Sure am glad to be "out" today. Boy did the bottom drop out -- I kinda thought it might happen, but wasn't sure enough to get real short this time. That's the way the game goes. Had I got short, and been wrong, it would have hurt, remember we don't get to see the right side of the charts till they happen. This is big -- it may be the markets are actually taking note of the fundamentals, which they really only do when forced to, or things are so boring and simple-trend that they creep back in. Most of the time, it's more pure psych, not numbers.

Ah, found this link to a good daily show over at zerohedge. It's worth your time if you don't understand the Greek situation -- only a little is left out here, and as usual, Jon is very funny.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jon-st ... t-unwashed

What they leave out here is that on top of the rest, the Greeks are the best people in the world at tax evasion -- nobody else comes close. A recent review of Google earth shows approximately 100 swimming pools for every one registered for property taxes...wow. Of course, that's only stuff you can see from space, but it's indicative of just how good they are at this game since it's not like a pool is that easy to hide from a non-corrupt government...I'm not sure whether to admire this skill or not....but it sure is impressive.

Oh, and the other thing they left out. It's not a case of no one fsking knows who sold the CDS's to Euro banks at below cost prices. It was us, in the form of the usual suspects, our larger banks.
Nothing has been learned, I guess. And why should there be when those guys still get bonuses and keep jobs after the last time they screwed up? What happened wasn't exactly an encouragement to change behavior -- the bad acts were rewarded, not punished. Would you change your ways in the same circumstances?

One of the very few truth-tellers out there, Adam Hewison, broke into what for him is quite rare -- a rant. Not quite up to his usual unemotional take on things, but that's what makes it interesting, actually -- the normally calmest guy one earth, who like guiding others through the morass just losing it....newsworthy.

http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/06/are ... hings-are/