The four most dangerous words
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 12:36 pm
Are:
"It's different this time". And indeed, they are very dangerous. During the internet boom, when companies with no income or serious business plan were zooming on the markets, people were sucked in with those words. If they weren't pretty nimble, they paid hard for that. Whether it's tulip bulbs, silver, internet stocks -- some things are never different. Human nature just doesn't seem to change much and it's mostly not good (present company excepted of course, and one reason this board is here -- so we few who aren't lazy, dishonest, greedy, short sighted, can find one another).
However, here goes -- I got guts -- it's different this time. No, not human nature, it sadly remains pretty constant.
What is different? Well for one thing, this is the first era in which the planet we live on is truly showing that it's finite. And we have built a world in the idea that there will always be another place to explore for more resources, another place to build a nest after we crap into the one we're in, and that new technology will always come along in time to solve our problems before they get really bad.
And it's just not true. The planet IS finite. There is no other place to go when we crap up our nest, and we've even cut any space travel, not that it would ever have been able to support a migration if there was another earth as close as the moon -- takes too much energy and history shows not that many people have what it takes to pull up stakes and rebuild anyway, unless it is awfully easy (like coming here from Mexico -- where there's already a rich country and culture, not really that hard a thing to do compared to taming a new world).
The world is addicted to inexpensive energy, mostly non-renew-ables, as a force multiplier so we don't eat our bread in the sweat of our brow -- a tractor does that part, and a tractor trailer brings it to our table. Energy keeps the food cold and fresh so we don't die and all that is possible.
As I study mining companies (good thing to do if you trade them as I do) the word is -- we've high-graded everything, and seached the entire planet and already found all deposits that are "significant". All the tech in the world can't do much about that -- there is so much copper here, and that's it. When you use up all the 30% ore, then doing down to 10% and less and there's no more places to look, well, you have issues. And of course it takes more energy to extract from the lower grades too -- and that's also in the same boat. I predict that some of us will live to see landfills fought over as "mines". Gold ore is now considered high grade if there are 10 grams per long ton of it.
The last big oil find was by PB and partners off shore in Brazil. It's not as big as Saudi....and there's not much earth left to look for oil on that hasn't been extensively searched already.
So, while human nature hasn't changed, and likely won't very much we do have a new input to the system -- we are flat running out of everything from energy to tillable land area. You can only double corn bushels/acre so many times with tech -- at some point it won't fit, and theres only so much solar energy per acre to grow it! What, realistically could even the best science fiction tech do for us once the solar-energy to corn-growth is 100% utilization? You could engineer it to use less water (and we have) but obviously there is a minimum there too.
A lot of people fantasize about moving to the great wild country if things get bad, like the place I live. Think again -- if many people do that, it won't be there anymore, there's just too many of us and too little "great wild". Not very long ago here, there was a meeting in the neighborhood that among other things, discussed the fact that we had a predatory mountain lion around.
I mentioned one of the very good hunters we have around here as a way to deal with that -- we'd hunted them to near extinction during the original settlements, as they are no joke, and even eat children (and the lack of them is why we now have too many deer and MUST hunt them for their and our own good). Well, the lady in question rejected that out of hand -- she wanted it captured and put "back where it belongs". There is no such place anymore -- she built a house on it, and I said that. Wasn't that popular a statement (for those who didn't laugh out loud) but hey, the truth, when it paints an ugly picture, isn't popular anywhere among normal humans, eh?
To me, this is just fact -- I'm not really that open to arguing it, and have already looked into the supposed "mineral and other" riches that the melting permafrost will expose and all that -- it's nothing, just a little more in our finite world.
So, how do we play this fact to our benefit? To me that's the true question, and those who assume that it's "never different this time" are about to be proved wrong in a way they can't dispute.
Since we have this little glimpse into what's to come, and it's doggoned inevitable, what do we do so that at least those of us who are honest and have skills and conviction come out fine, even if it's not possible for all to do so?
Now that's where discussion is called for, as I don't have an answer that makes me happy or content yet. I can't see just being superior fighter over less and less stuff that is more valuable by being scarce, but necessary as a happy outcome, even if I win that fight (though I of course do plan to win). I'd like to find an everybody-wins kind of solution, or at least "nearly everybody".
Anyone have a clue?
I see little point in changing a thousand dollars into a million if that million won't even buy then what that thousand would today. I see little joy in profiting in a world where people are dying for lack of the true necessities (but I don't care if people die over lack of cable TV or hot showers at 5 am every day).
IN fact, even our broken medical system is helping the problem along -- people are living longer, and consuming, while still only being productive for about the same length of time as ever, and our retirement laws don't reflect the new reality. In truth, having people retire young seems like a good thing -- wealth is time or vice versa, and in this case, just having more people "Do things" isn't the problem -- we can barely employ those we have now, labor isn't the problem anymore, machines have so hyped up our ability to strip the planet there's no need for a lot of slave labor anymore (as long as there's energy to run them, and I think we can count on the fact they'll have priority when energy is short).
Wow, that's pretty grim, and I'm not the grim sort -- why else would I be pouring my personal fortune and time into trying to find a way out via some form of nuclear energy, which would solve at least a few of the really big problems? Believe me, I spend a lot more time laughing my guts out or experiencing joy than any of the opposites. I just don't allow it to make me blind.
But what if I (we) fail? It's definitely possible we would. Science doesn't magically come along and save us -- we've just been lucky. The universe is constructed the way it is, and no other way. We can't prove there's a world saving secret trick out there we just haven't found out yet -- can't prove it either way, and dumb luck is not what I like to count on -- I take it when I get it, but don't think I will always have it when needed, and don't confuse it with skill on my part - and neither should "the world".
In the bad old days, the overpopulation issues were simply solved -- war and pestilence. I'm not going to wish for either, and I assume that no one here would either. Eugenics was made kind of unpopular by that dictator in Germany awhile back -- and I think that's a good thing myself -- we are obviously not wise enough as a species to handle that. Heck, collectively we were dumb enough to put ourselves into this situation as is, even with guys like Malthus to warn us about it -- he wasn't right at the right time, but....what about now, or soon?
We can't stop procreating -- human nature, and in truth, we are still in a world where the young are needed to take care of the old as well as themselves.
At any rate, given that it really is different this time, and to get back on topic -- what will we smart guys do to stay on top, and hopefully bring others with us, since we know it's different, but hardly anyone else does (at least anyone but some greenies with unrealistic goals and a serious lack of brains or a workable plan to fix it). And since we don't have a plan that can bring everyone along, how to choose who gets to come along for the ride? Heck, that's as hard and dangerous a judgment to make as that eugenics stuff, isn't it.
So if anyone wants to talk trash around this as a starting point -- here's the tinder, and the spark. Go make a fire.
Put as a question, even a biblical one -- How to be a good steward and be rewarded for so being?
Remember, that starving and desperate people will pull down those who aren't in that condition if they can (and call it fairness!), so betting on what "just has to do well in a shortage situation" might result in making a bad bet -- one example -- windfall profits taxes. There are more, of course.
"It's different this time". And indeed, they are very dangerous. During the internet boom, when companies with no income or serious business plan were zooming on the markets, people were sucked in with those words. If they weren't pretty nimble, they paid hard for that. Whether it's tulip bulbs, silver, internet stocks -- some things are never different. Human nature just doesn't seem to change much and it's mostly not good (present company excepted of course, and one reason this board is here -- so we few who aren't lazy, dishonest, greedy, short sighted, can find one another).
However, here goes -- I got guts -- it's different this time. No, not human nature, it sadly remains pretty constant.
What is different? Well for one thing, this is the first era in which the planet we live on is truly showing that it's finite. And we have built a world in the idea that there will always be another place to explore for more resources, another place to build a nest after we crap into the one we're in, and that new technology will always come along in time to solve our problems before they get really bad.
And it's just not true. The planet IS finite. There is no other place to go when we crap up our nest, and we've even cut any space travel, not that it would ever have been able to support a migration if there was another earth as close as the moon -- takes too much energy and history shows not that many people have what it takes to pull up stakes and rebuild anyway, unless it is awfully easy (like coming here from Mexico -- where there's already a rich country and culture, not really that hard a thing to do compared to taming a new world).
The world is addicted to inexpensive energy, mostly non-renew-ables, as a force multiplier so we don't eat our bread in the sweat of our brow -- a tractor does that part, and a tractor trailer brings it to our table. Energy keeps the food cold and fresh so we don't die and all that is possible.
As I study mining companies (good thing to do if you trade them as I do) the word is -- we've high-graded everything, and seached the entire planet and already found all deposits that are "significant". All the tech in the world can't do much about that -- there is so much copper here, and that's it. When you use up all the 30% ore, then doing down to 10% and less and there's no more places to look, well, you have issues. And of course it takes more energy to extract from the lower grades too -- and that's also in the same boat. I predict that some of us will live to see landfills fought over as "mines". Gold ore is now considered high grade if there are 10 grams per long ton of it.
The last big oil find was by PB and partners off shore in Brazil. It's not as big as Saudi....and there's not much earth left to look for oil on that hasn't been extensively searched already.
So, while human nature hasn't changed, and likely won't very much we do have a new input to the system -- we are flat running out of everything from energy to tillable land area. You can only double corn bushels/acre so many times with tech -- at some point it won't fit, and theres only so much solar energy per acre to grow it! What, realistically could even the best science fiction tech do for us once the solar-energy to corn-growth is 100% utilization? You could engineer it to use less water (and we have) but obviously there is a minimum there too.
A lot of people fantasize about moving to the great wild country if things get bad, like the place I live. Think again -- if many people do that, it won't be there anymore, there's just too many of us and too little "great wild". Not very long ago here, there was a meeting in the neighborhood that among other things, discussed the fact that we had a predatory mountain lion around.
I mentioned one of the very good hunters we have around here as a way to deal with that -- we'd hunted them to near extinction during the original settlements, as they are no joke, and even eat children (and the lack of them is why we now have too many deer and MUST hunt them for their and our own good). Well, the lady in question rejected that out of hand -- she wanted it captured and put "back where it belongs". There is no such place anymore -- she built a house on it, and I said that. Wasn't that popular a statement (for those who didn't laugh out loud) but hey, the truth, when it paints an ugly picture, isn't popular anywhere among normal humans, eh?
To me, this is just fact -- I'm not really that open to arguing it, and have already looked into the supposed "mineral and other" riches that the melting permafrost will expose and all that -- it's nothing, just a little more in our finite world.
So, how do we play this fact to our benefit? To me that's the true question, and those who assume that it's "never different this time" are about to be proved wrong in a way they can't dispute.
Since we have this little glimpse into what's to come, and it's doggoned inevitable, what do we do so that at least those of us who are honest and have skills and conviction come out fine, even if it's not possible for all to do so?
Now that's where discussion is called for, as I don't have an answer that makes me happy or content yet. I can't see just being superior fighter over less and less stuff that is more valuable by being scarce, but necessary as a happy outcome, even if I win that fight (though I of course do plan to win). I'd like to find an everybody-wins kind of solution, or at least "nearly everybody".
Anyone have a clue?
I see little point in changing a thousand dollars into a million if that million won't even buy then what that thousand would today. I see little joy in profiting in a world where people are dying for lack of the true necessities (but I don't care if people die over lack of cable TV or hot showers at 5 am every day).
IN fact, even our broken medical system is helping the problem along -- people are living longer, and consuming, while still only being productive for about the same length of time as ever, and our retirement laws don't reflect the new reality. In truth, having people retire young seems like a good thing -- wealth is time or vice versa, and in this case, just having more people "Do things" isn't the problem -- we can barely employ those we have now, labor isn't the problem anymore, machines have so hyped up our ability to strip the planet there's no need for a lot of slave labor anymore (as long as there's energy to run them, and I think we can count on the fact they'll have priority when energy is short).
Wow, that's pretty grim, and I'm not the grim sort -- why else would I be pouring my personal fortune and time into trying to find a way out via some form of nuclear energy, which would solve at least a few of the really big problems? Believe me, I spend a lot more time laughing my guts out or experiencing joy than any of the opposites. I just don't allow it to make me blind.
But what if I (we) fail? It's definitely possible we would. Science doesn't magically come along and save us -- we've just been lucky. The universe is constructed the way it is, and no other way. We can't prove there's a world saving secret trick out there we just haven't found out yet -- can't prove it either way, and dumb luck is not what I like to count on -- I take it when I get it, but don't think I will always have it when needed, and don't confuse it with skill on my part - and neither should "the world".
In the bad old days, the overpopulation issues were simply solved -- war and pestilence. I'm not going to wish for either, and I assume that no one here would either. Eugenics was made kind of unpopular by that dictator in Germany awhile back -- and I think that's a good thing myself -- we are obviously not wise enough as a species to handle that. Heck, collectively we were dumb enough to put ourselves into this situation as is, even with guys like Malthus to warn us about it -- he wasn't right at the right time, but....what about now, or soon?
We can't stop procreating -- human nature, and in truth, we are still in a world where the young are needed to take care of the old as well as themselves.
At any rate, given that it really is different this time, and to get back on topic -- what will we smart guys do to stay on top, and hopefully bring others with us, since we know it's different, but hardly anyone else does (at least anyone but some greenies with unrealistic goals and a serious lack of brains or a workable plan to fix it). And since we don't have a plan that can bring everyone along, how to choose who gets to come along for the ride? Heck, that's as hard and dangerous a judgment to make as that eugenics stuff, isn't it.
So if anyone wants to talk trash around this as a starting point -- here's the tinder, and the spark. Go make a fire.
Put as a question, even a biblical one -- How to be a good steward and be rewarded for so being?
Remember, that starving and desperate people will pull down those who aren't in that condition if they can (and call it fairness!), so betting on what "just has to do well in a shortage situation" might result in making a bad bet -- one example -- windfall profits taxes. There are more, of course.