The daily link

It appears some of us are interested in the business of trading, hopefully for both fun and profit.
Here's a place to talk about that. I suggest two main categories. How to trade (timeless), and what are you trading now, and why, and how it turned out. Those tend to be missing from the pro boards, so pundits can have selective memory....but that's not all that is important. Being wrong is part of the game, and how to handle it and make money anyway is crucial, for just one example.
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The usual. Be nice, be informative, tell it like it is.

Re: The daily link

Postby Donovan Ready » Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:46 pm

The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.

Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore.
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Re: The daily link

Postby David McKee » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:20 pm

This is the sort of thing that would make "some people" gather some suitable buddies to go and "visit" that town again in the middle of the night... and have a little "conversation" with the cops/judges/etc. in their own bedrooms when they are in their skivvies... alone and without anyone to back them up...

if you get my meaning.
"Mad Science" means never stopping to ask "what's the worst thing that could happen?"
Having too many projects at the same time means never having to say "I'm Bored"...
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:14 pm

David, I kind of suspect this is why we don't see this inside our small town (who knows what they do to "tourists" - other small towns are well known for it). It's because we all grew up together, we all know where everyone lives, and we all have to live here.
You can't just go a few blocks away (hell, we don't even have blocks here) and be a stranger. The cops have to live with the people, as do the judges. And they know it. The disease is apparently the result of the anonymity that too much population density brings about. I've got quite a lot of opinion about that one...let's just say I like living "nowhere", where most of the diseases man has invented/evolved in high density situations just don't and cannot exist for very long. A con artist has to get out of this town to find any new marks, posthaste, or go out of business, as well.

In other words - no violence required here. Just being roundly disliked for malfeasance is enough deterrent. In a city, it's a whole other story.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:20 pm

And here we have the most transparent(ly criminal), whistleblower-prosecuting but not any big financial lawbreakers, ever.
If you think this is about what color clowns the puppet in charge wears, you don't get it yet.
20141016_denial.jpg
I've said the rest.


I'm from a generation where "I like Ike" meant something. Interesting how accurate his predictions on how and why it would go to hell after he left all came true. I wish it had taken longer...I'm still alive to "enjoy" this corruption and watch my country go to S**T in every way I could have imagined. Dragging of course, as much of the rest of the planet as possible along for the ride. Sorry guys, we um, American subjects didn't do it and do not approve. Not that it's ever really been up to us. If elections really made a difference, we'd stop them.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Donovan Ready » Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:41 pm

As you say.

I think the country is still OK for the most part. It's the cities we need worry about. :|
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Re: The daily link

Postby solar_dave » Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:11 am

Looks like t-minus 2 years and counting!
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:17 pm

Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:44 pm

Well, ZeroHedge is most often "the first with the worst" but this time it's taken them 6 or so years to say what Todd Harrison and I've been saying all this time:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-1 ... y-was-born

Since the crisis, banks have been allowed to "mark to model", or in other words, fantasy*, as they are all, even after front and backdoor bailouts, utterly insolvent. It's all air, people.
This was, and is, "the dog that didn't bark". The first bank to actually be solvent would be shouting it from the rooftops as it would make them look good and draw business from their competitors. That this is their main mission in life should have been made obvious by sub-prime lending and CDO's in the first place - once you let one guy do it (Fannie), everyone else MUST, or lose market share. No, no one forced them, just as no one forces them to stay in business...but in another way, yeah, it's force.

As a side benefit, this little regulatory change has allowed insolvent institutions to pay unconscionable bonuses to bankers for "profits" that are utter illusion. It makes people think of rope, and guillotines. But the pervasive NSA snooping isn't about protecting we small people from foreign enemies, it's the total wrong pattern for that. It does make a lot of sense, along with those huge ammo purchases by DHS - that they are planning to protect "the elite" from us, who are getting a little sore "back there".

This thing has held up longer than any of us in the know thought possible, it seems people have that particular cognitive bias "normalcy" or some version, and keep believing the lies. Let me tell you - if you pulled all your money - all of it, and only a few percent did so (yeah, they make it hard with taxes on IRAs and such, warning lockup times on hedge funds and now the same for money market) - the whole thing would crumble overnight. But "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". I'm beginning to wonder if the tax penalties might not be worth it, as in, we've already passed bail-in laws (banks can just take your money directly vs doing it through the taxpayers as before), and who knows? After tax money is still money, that other thing - zero, nada, zip. You know where all the actual, more or less unencumbered cash assets are right now? Yup, retirement funds. No one else has real money, it's all rehypothecated loans (eg using the same collateral more than once to borrow more money - most banks are in the 30::1 range now, it's worse in London and elsewhere).

Yes, banks are carrying as "assets" loans that haven't had a payment in years on houses with no windows, no plumbing, no wires, 6 foot grass, crackhead squatters as "good loans" on their books, that will be paid back, on entire neighborhoods that will never recover (and in fact, municipalities are talking about bulldozing to keep the rest of the area nicer). That's the least of it. Yes, guys like Paulson said if they didn't get their way, there'd be a disaster - his words were "tanks in the streets".
Yes, it will be very hard on people who, unlike most of those here, have no idea how to create things of value to others, but only a knowledge of arcane man-made regulations and rules and how to push paper around. It's really going to finally hurt to be meaningless, which would include nearly all of the fear-mongers about financial collapse.

Think about it - will one person here who knows how to twist a screwdriver lose that ability? Will my solar panels stop working? My lathe? My brain? Nah, I'll be fine, along with my farm-country friends. We've been bartering my output (fix computers and tractors and all between) with theirs (food and manual help) for years already. If your main asset is money - I strongly suggest you get it into a form you can hold personally. Negative interest rates are not unknown even now, and bank of mattress never looked better, even for likely to lose value FRNs. I like stashing my value in other things - tools, supplies and so on, but a certain amount of plain old cash also seems wise.

OK </rant>
But don't say I didn't warn ya. It's a matter of time - we just don't know how much (and often, that's the only really important question, so all I can say is - sorry, I don't know).


*those who think that the models have to be in any way realistic probably believe the "new" on a 30 year old box of cereal in the basement. I can't help you.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:33 pm

Sometimes I wonder why they keep Nigel around - is it just to laugh at someone telling the truth in the chamber of lies? Court jester who can insult everyone fearlessly? Entertaining to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiUtdZyL_Mk
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Sun Mar 29, 2015 4:31 pm

Mixed bag here. I like smart people, especially Kyle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtCrZLXlt3Q

Though I can't get over the feeling that something serious is being left out in the above. Maybe several somethings. As was pointed out, diversification might be a false model if everything goes at once, and it may.

Some humor now. Germany all freaked out because Yanis told the simple truth to them - no way Greece can actually pay all this back. In fact, when they get more loans - the Greeks (and not main street, just the government) only sees around 8% of the net - the rest goes right back to continue the bailout of the German banks that made earlier bad loans. "Helping Greece" isn't what's going on here, not at all. It's a backdoor bailout of Germany...which is why they are freaked. Never let it be said that my German friends don't have a sense of humor, though - they did make this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afl9WFG ... l009sYggjA


Hint, we're doing backdoor bailout of our own insolvent banks much the same way. Feel that QE in your own lifestyle yet? Only if you've been long markets this whole time - when no one rational could believe the Fed would do what they've done, since rational people know what the endgame is. Not one of our major banks is yelling that they would be solvent if FASB 157 were re-instated (the rule that makes them mark to market). It's the dog that didn't bark. Yes, they can keep this going a long time - but in the end, it's going to get interesting.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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