The daily link

It appears some of us are interested in the business of trading, hopefully for both fun and profit.
Here's a place to talk about that. I suggest two main categories. How to trade (timeless), and what are you trading now, and why, and how it turned out. Those tend to be missing from the pro boards, so pundits can have selective memory....but that's not all that is important. Being wrong is part of the game, and how to handle it and make money anyway is crucial, for just one example.
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The usual. Be nice, be informative, tell it like it is.

Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri May 03, 2013 3:59 pm

Suicide rates are going way up among a group of people who otherwise rarely do it - middle aged white male types. Presumably this is because things are no where near as rosy as our book-cooking governments tell us. While self-hanging is on the rise, as is deliberate drug overdose, of course most use guns. What shocked me most was that we are now killing more of ourselves via deliberate suicide than we are with auto accidents...which alone yearly approximate our *total* losses in the Vietnam war (on the US side).

The original story:
http://www.medpagetoday.com/Psychiatry/ ... atry/38825

Which ZH picked up on a day late (bad for them).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-0 ... ate-surges

I guess people have too much of their ego tied up in finance and whether their home mortgage is underwater. Or maybe it's not being able to feed their kids - even in a "rich" country anymore. I mean, damn, I screwed up and lost about 5k in AGNC today - but I didn't kill myself, and have no such intention.
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Re: The daily link

Postby solar_dave » Sat May 04, 2013 9:58 pm

Nasty set of stats for sure. I can see however how some people might get backed into that corner.

Take my lay off from the online payment giant, it was all about the money, I had bonus in the queue that in one year in the future actually would have been more than wages and most of the next 5-6 years looked impressive on paper, it could have approached 7 figures plus for wages & bonus over that time frame, the Obama tax killers would have loved that. It looked like a great nest egg for the retirement fund. Alas it was all a 2 in the bush deal, and glad I did have some of the bird in the hand already, But I didn't kill myself over it, obviously. I did set myself up for the retirement, did the solar, got new cars, cleared the mortgage, got some real estate before the prices went bonkers and pumped the brokerage account all up best I could.

I know of several stories where people had all their net worth gambled into the housing market, pretty obvious what happened to them. When the supporting construction jobs fell apart all of it was a complete loss. I watched one neighbor get the cars, work equipment and finally his house of 20 years get taken way. Nice guy just too leveraged.

Sure am glad I have some skills that are still valuable, to buffer up the cash side of the equation till 2015 when I will pull the trigger on the working stiff deal. Health is such that I can do little more than telecommute, don't think I could do the every week trip to anywhere anymore as a contractor. Did that before over 10 years ago and it about killed me then.

But I am not killing myself over it.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Mon May 06, 2013 9:03 am

To be sure, Dave, guys like us have taken our lumps - I lost about half a million in the crash. On the other hand - guys like us are the .1% at worst...how many people drive electric cars charged off the sun? Truly, the "99%" movement got it wrong. It's really about 25 personalities that run the planet, they think for our own good (truly scary)....but certainly theirs. I'm not sure the percent that is, but it's got a lot of zeros after the decimal point. Then there are the rest of us, some better off than others.

I mention this because it's obvious (and has happened to me) that a lot of fairly well off people really don't "get" how bad it is out there for the huge majority.
Sooner or later that huge majority isn't going to put up with it anymore...the question is when, not if, at this point. The whole pyramid is complaining now, from the guys far below us, to guys well above - about that very top. There will be "troubles" I'm pretty sure. The question is how it all plays out - and when.

Look at every revolution ever. When any sizable group believes "anything would be better than this" - that's when you have those troubles. (note, it doesn't have to be true, they just have to believe it) Committing suicide tells me substantial numbers of people here already think that. As someone on ZH commented - it would have been better had they gone after the external causes of their troubles...such as they exist (many troubles are self-created, as we know, but that doesn't mean that everything is your own fault - sometimes you're getting help getting hurt).
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Re: The daily link

Postby solar_dave » Mon May 06, 2013 10:37 am

I have to agree with your Doug, but those that got burned were very greedy and should have seen the writing on the wall in the real estate market. Bubbles never last forever, the music stops sometimes and there is a limited number of chairs, generally none for the average guy. Yes self inflicted, and the remorse can drive them to the suicide solution's.

Hmmm you really think we are in the 0.1%, I certainly hope that this is true, retirement might not be so bad then. My sister is in about the same boat as me, must run in the family, but dad always was very conservative and mom is still way ahead of us after 20+ year of retirement from what he did. Her issue is she is 87 years old and getting to need more life kinds of support, it will probably burn her every last dollar just to keep going.

I do think the majority is not in great shape, those over 55 with no retirement savings are going to starve and there is a bunch of those people out there. You seen what food is doing in our zero inflation economy! The healthcare buzz has me totally spooked, I am pretty sure there is no good solution coming forth. I can just see them dicking with medicare to dump the costs they committed to years ago, and I paid into for over how many years! The wife just spent one night in the emergency room and hospital, the insurance we have now (Cobra @ $1000+ a month) will end up paying the brunt, but that has a finite course. I suspect that bill is approaching $10K for a day. I see no economical solutions available till that magic retirement time with medicare if that will even exist. Still at least 5 years out unless I go the disability route that so many like me are doing. The real issue is although the number of applications are up the approvals remain about the same, nearly 1 million a year.

Well the key to retiring is cost control, problem is what I can control I have already done, what I can't control just looks like the next payoff from the last bubble because of all the dollar printing. Put the criminals in jail for good terms and their replacement peers will think twice about doing it again. But it can't fix what the Fed is doing now.

Revolution is a tough road for us old guys, I guess we try and defend what we have and expect the worse.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Mon May 06, 2013 12:51 pm

"Hope for the best, but plan for the worst" is a pretty operable mantra. It's one I try for.
Yes, I really DO think guys like us are way up the pyramid - even though someone called my place "a shack" the other night on G+ (we had a good laugh as he's seen what's inside it as well).

How many people do you know with zero debt, fully owned homes, cars and so on? Who have at least some of their own necessities taken care of (perhaps water, some food production *electricity*, and so on)? Not many, I'd venture - I only know a few and I live in a hotbed of such types - most are still utterly dependent on society for something really crucial (think retiree with a home, but dependent on entitlements for food/meds - or a prepper who needs a job to eat, still). So yeah, I think the Joneses will be keeping up with us, right now they are living on debt they won't be able to service when rates go up, as they surely will at some point. As Ric Edelman pointed out in the old classic "The Truth about Money" - even the Joneses aren't really keeping up. I witnessed this when my family went from poor to well off - via being conservative and hard work, no windfalls for us. We moved into a classy neighborhood - what would now be called McMansions, kind of before the concept got going - a real nice place, kind of like yours.

We then proceeded to watch "the Joneses" come and go with near lightning speed. They'd move in, fancy furniture, fancy new cars (we were restoring and driving old clunkers, that conservative bent thing). Dad mentioned this - the Joneses couldn't keep up even with themselves...all foreclosed out of there at some point, usually within 2 or so years.
And I'm talking about the 70's and 80's here. It was a sobering experience, not that I learned from it the first time I got "rich" - I blew it just like them. That taught me to live as though poor no matter how much money I have, and that true riches are other stuff - friends you can count on, tools, skills, knowledge, health. Not money so much, though it IS more fun to be depressed and rich than it is while poor. It's better yet to not be depressed, period!

The big change I'm going through - I used to say that if you're not your own best investment, you should be looking at why that is and doing something about that.
Well, most don't have the initiative for it. But now that I'm aging, well....another startup business is probably out of the question for me - it's just too much work - every waking moment and some of your dream-time to make one go. And I already have every tool I can imagine, or nearly - space is my limitation there - and my ongoing self-education is working, but once you already know nearly everything - there's just not much more to go it seems, other than this ignorant "press release science" we see, where people are re-inventing stuff that existed in the '50s and are just so specialized/ignorant they don't realize it.

For entertainment - this guy has a series of movies online where he tries various things with gold eagles. He must pick his spots carefully (or has not published the movies where he actually lost one). On the other hand, I took a mint-direct box of each gold and silver eagles to a gun show a couple weeks back, one full of vendors of "prepper stuff" - and could not pass a single one, even for half-value. Go figure, gold bugs. I don't think the stuff is so useful if no one will take it but coin dealers, or there's nothing to buy because our JIT system has failed. But it was fun, wish cameras had been allowed, I'd have one like this myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAaVK5AkZzI


I tried to buy a $1000 rifle for a gold piece (1 OZ) - eye roll, no dice. I tried to buy a $15 tool for a silver eagle - again, no dice. Even the guy selling MRE's (the real deal, not the "just like the army" ones, but the real ones) - no dice at half spot price. I think that unless there are a lot of people in the game, you just can't use them for trade.
No way to make change. No one knows what they are worth. My guess would be they'd be worth a good deal on the recovery after a crash, but not during one - when things are in short supply, and there's nothing to buy anyway. I am a member of several groups that look at "prepping" and an accidental hero in them because I'm not really a prepper - but I am actually pretty prepped. Around here, we call it "homesteading" - it's really the same thing - start with bare land, and get going. It's not easy work, but it pays in the end, and here I am at the payoff point - even without any sort of major societal disruption. Could be worse!

I really do laugh at the fantasy of some of them - that their little pile of gold and a 9mm are going to do them any good in their NYC apartment (while rioters burn it down), or that they'll come to areas like this and buy some farm and live high off the land. A: Farming is HARD. B: Farmer brown already has a farm, gold, guns, and knows how to use them all - why not just shoot your little NYC sell-side broker ass and take your gold? They clearly have no clue whatever. And those who fantasize about living in the wilds - there are so many that if a decent fraction make it there - it won't be the wilds anymore. I have maybe 20-30 deer on my land, great. If the whole neighborhood suddenly got hungry, they'd be gone in a week or two...There is actually a group on G+ called Rocky Mtn survivalists, and whose main thrust seems to be that, but really - what they do is cram a pickup full of scads of beer and munchies and hang out over a weekend in the wild. Not quite the same thing as being able to live there, even under the best of conditions, eh?

I actually think that, assuming we can avoid getting involved in any kind of violence that might happen, guys like us will do fine - better than those who think they are "ready for anything" - because we really are more ready, and have the wisdom to avoid things like violence when possible. We are the ones with the skills and tools - we will be in demand.

How many 18yo kids can even change oil now? How many could work a rotary dial phone, or even understand what the cord is on there for? We are rapidly losing ability as a society - we might know what buttons to push, but what if the machine breaks and no one is making more? This is not to say there aren't a few smart kids out there - but the percentage is just a lot lower every year...when we leave this life, they're going to be hurting, I think. I'm just not seeing a critical mass of people with the skills to make the world go - even this poorly - to replace us. It's sad.

It's actually one of the prime motivations for the existence of this forum in general - think Isaac Asimov's "first foundation" - a way to preserve *practical knowledge* - how the people who do things actually do it, since quite a bit of it isn't disseminated - it's all "trade secret" or held by some sort of guild. Somebody has to do it, or we are risking a giant step backwards as a species. Of course, you can't just print all this out - it's still dependent on a working internet etc - else the high value videos are toast, and they actually convey most of the good stuff.

I've learned quite a bit from some very old books - guys who could make steam engines with only cast iron and horsehide (piston rings) weren't dumb at all - or self-adjusting arc lamps. But you learn a lot more than they even tried to teach from those pictures - what did they wear? What did the shop generally look like? How muscular did the average guy have to be. How did they manage to get 1/10th mil accuracy out of an old crummy lathe with a mil play in the spindle? I consider those books and that knowledge a lot more worth while than mere money...
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Re: The daily link

Postby solar_dave » Tue May 07, 2013 10:42 am

That video is pretty damn funny, hard to believe so many are so clueless. I have never been a big believer in gold, I think in times of distress a large booze supply for trading would be more valuable. I would be building a still if materials to distill were available. You are right however to carry value through the tough times gold would work coming out the back side as all the ones hit so hard would see it as high value.

Yeah me likes tools, knowledge and skills, I have rebuilt my share of old cars over the years, and it was the right thing to do at the time for sure. Other peoples wrecks were my specialty, get them cheap and they are usually low miles so they have lots of life left in them. Now even the DMV has gotten into that act with salvage titles and hammered the values which is OK, if you buy them to drive them.

Even in this rough economy the Joneses are still out there, one house down the street from me has a new array of large jacked up pickup trucks in a constant rotation, usually under 2 years. They have the driveway lite up like a prison to protected them. I certainly don't understand how they keep them all fed, it must cost a small fortune. One of the grand kids friends house has an astroturf lawn. And the beemers are flourishing, but I bet on cheap credit. I do notice that those with real skills are doing OK, like my AC guy's new Harley in his garage with about $15K in custom parts, but even he would be better off upgrading his real estate holdings and savings. I am starting to think the banks are not liking the tight spreads on the credit and that is nearly over. Once the economy take a couple more incremental steps forward they will crush the credit again.

You are so right about what is valuable, while I have no debt and a nice house to show for all those years of hard work, I might have been a bit less stressed with less house and more liquid assets but I suppose middle+ 6 figures is really enough if I stay the conservative bent. If it was just me I am sure that would be enough, but with a dear wife that will most likely out live me by 30 years, I really have to plan for that too. I did plan for more and am still working down that line of thought but you are right, any endeavor at this late stage like a new business would not be in the cards. That being said a small fun kind of business for under the table cash or barter might be sort of nice after the daily grind is done. Personally I think the the tax man is going to be on the war path sooner rather than later and anyone that starts a small business now has to be very aware of that. The Feds are poised to eat them alive, someone has to pay for all that banker folly.

While it is nice to have the Internet, lots of real knowledge out there if you can filter it from the bullshit, old books hold some really great information. I am a interested collector of them, we are near Sun City, AZ which is one of God's waiting rooms and the estate sales seem to have a plethora of 40 & 50 year old reading material. It seems like that were a lot of skilled trades men retiring over there 20-30 years ago. They never got rid of the old manuals and technical guides. I just picked up a Machinery's Handbook and a Practical Physics Experiments (damn thing weighs at least 10 lbs and is pretty cool) from the 50's over there for next to nothing.

Well if we make it till the next election cycle, one would hope that the change will happen for the better. Problem is they are corrupt and have the wrong motivation, re-election is not what they should be hire for. Hopefully revolution will not be in the wind and we can move forward as a united people.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue May 07, 2013 2:03 pm

One of the inspiring things happening to me lately, is the discussions I'm having on G+ with self-selected groups of "good smart people". It's very encouraging to know there are still a few out there, for one. For another - worldwide - we are all catching on to the fact that we, as people, like each other, and it's our governments making all the problems in their quest to enrich their owners. I think we're heading toward a case of "we'd have gotten away with it if not for you pesky, nosy kids".

A couple examples - I was on a chat the other day, swapping guitar licks with a guy in Japan, a rabbi in Isreal, and a guy in Iran, along with a couple people in places like Oz. Politics didn't come up for quite some time. I brought it up - aren't some of you guys getting ready to shoot at one another? Universal response "our governments are full of shit". I liked that.

Another - remember when Putin made such a stink about us building an anti-missile base near Russia? All fake. Any decent physicist knows you can't catch an ICBM from behind - a stern chase is a long chase, and they are the hot performance thing out there - all muscle. We get all up in arms, we know it's not about Russia, but about other threats (NK, Iran etc) - and so do they, it's not like they don't have some awfully smart guys over there. But it allowed them both to parade themselves as "Strong leaders" and get re-elected. Bet they get a big laugh over drinks on that one when they meet.

Of course, those are just two. With the right eyes, you see them everywhere, it's all bogus out there above a certain power level.

My own experience in starting a good business - the one that made us well off monetarily and friends for life - was that the gov is so used to people doing it the "normal way", and we didn't. We actually went real close to the edge with what we deducted - we called new computers for the guys "office supplies" - 100% deducted the first year, no amortization. Deducted $1k for skirting for the trailer we used (we got the thing free). And more for plumbing and wiring it, along with furniture (also office supplies, we were hard on all that stuff and it really did wear out much faster than the official amortization rates). Yet, due to our really low actual costs - we wound up deducting far less as a fraction of gross than most new businesses do, so we just flew totally under the radar - they even reduced our taxes (federal) from what we had already 'pushed to the limit". I won't disagree that this might be changing. After all, Cyprus is widely regarded now as a worldwide template for wealth confiscation in "bail in" mode. We looked so good to them - no deductions for the usual stuff a startup wastes money on...no trophy secretaries, no special logos/advertising/stationary, you name it, if we didn't need it, and we didn't - we skipped buying it, and put the money in our own pockets - then we paid taxes on the result.

Now, the local gov did give us a break. There's no zoning around here, if a building doesn't have things like power co power or a well/drainfield, it's a barn. They just could not figure out how to get their hands into our pockets, and kind of afraid of messing up - we really do outnumber them in both numbers and well, fierceness, as they found out when they wanted to allow a pipeline to destroy our multigenerational farms. Only a few hundred people with torches and pitchforks (and a little well placed bribery) put a stop to that in a heartbeat. It was scary to be them for a little while, so they backed way off - they have to live here too. Not like the state or feds at all. And oh yes, we were bringing millions into the county from outside, mainly to be spent here. Big fish in a tiny pond. That never hurts. With a government small enough that you can actually talk to the policy makers, and point out obvious things like that, things can be sweet. Hard to find this situation in an ever-denser world, though.

I guess you could posit there's a graph of possible freedoms. With one person on the planet, it's not infinite though - you're mainly free to starve - you'd never get as far as owning a car and a source of gas, for example, or most other things. As population grows, you're more free, to a point, as Adam Smith pointed out - specialization becomes possible, efficiencies of scale and so on. You're more free. But there's a peak of that, and I believe we've passed it as a species. My right to swing my arm ends (and should) at your nose. In say, NYC, that means I can't swing my arms at all - there's always a nose in the way. Here, it's the opposite. This is one reason I really object to statism, one size fits all. Darn it - it DOES NOT, even for the one guy who is me. I've been a homeless bum, a mid-sucessful racer, pop start, stock trader, homeless bum again, then built a homestead, started a business - which me is the one they know what's best for? And I'm just one guy!

It's looking like those near (but not quite at) the top of the pyramid realize now that there's little left to plunder from us - and are now fighting each other. The Devil breaks his tools when they don't serve him well enough, is the quote that comes to mind there. Cayman, London, all "offshore" wealth is at least what the tax men are claiming to be getting ready to seriously go after - recent estimates are in the 32 trillion range - drop in the bucket, but enough to fix up a bunch of governments at least for a bit. Apple just borrowed what, 17 billion at rates like an AAA government to avoid paying taxes on the (100?) billion of offshore cash they can't find a double dutch sandwich to hide, so can't bring home to pay their dividend? That's sick, and governments are deciding it might be time to universally crack down on those shenannigans, but you have to have everyone on board to pull that off, or the money just goes to its happiest home instead.

It's insane how long it seems they can stay, well, insane, and the thing not just topple over. I suspect it's still that most of us DO believe it can get much worse, and don't want to rock the boat - for now. That will be the tipping point, I think they understand this, and are now going after one another for the present, mainly.

Now, what we have going on here in Floyd, I'd like to call Libertarian Communism, for lack of better words (those tend to be loaded "button" words and that's not where I'm coming from - skip the political baggage is my motto).

Works like this - I'm expert and tooled up for things A, B, C.
Others are, for things D-Z - from medical care, to big yellow things the move dirt, to lawyers, farmers, builders - you name it. We all do things for one another for free, not even a handshake - just a nod that means "I owe ya one". So no taxable cash changes hands, everyone does well...all utterly voluntary. It's what I call true civilization.

But the rest of the race isn't there - this is really special, and rare. You have to search to find real communities, real neighborhoods. I consider getting to live in this self-selected crowd (if you're a prick, no one helps you and nature will take you out at some point - you gotta leave) about the best thing that's ever happened to me, or at least way way up there. There are no whiners, no people who are volunteer victims who think that because something bad once happened to them we all owe them the life of Riley. None, zero. I of course do run into plenty of those online, especially when I moderate certain shows on G+, but a little gentle hint that most of us in the room tend to merely overcome such things and move on as major winners seems to help turn that tide just a little, so I'm still encouraged. Of course, some of them perceive the insult and do not return...So be it!

I do (and so should you) realize that as mere humans, we can't ensure things much past our own time of effectiveness - nature and the world at large are just so much bigger than we. I understand your (and many others) desires to make things nice for family, even though I don't have one myself (all dead, despite modern, overly expensive medical care - back in the day, they'd have just died younger). So I hope you can understand my stance there - I hope to drop dead just as the last check I wrote bounces and they come to collect, with the middle finger proudly displayed as I go down. But that's just me - I KNOW I'll have left the world a better place for being here, so I don't feel too bad about that one. I KNOW I've helped a lot of losers become winners. I KNOW I've improved quality of life for many, and been a good example of how to keep on doing that.

I think it's the best one can hope for - you can't change the whole world, but you sure as hell can help out the part given to you to work with. And, it seems that even without contracts, agreements, etc - what goes around comes around just fine, it might be that you do entity A some good - and they don't want you around, since you knew them "when". So? Then some other entity does the same for you - something nice and unexpected falls in your lap. It seems to be the law in every religion for some reason - karma, 2nd commandment - you name it, every decent viable religion says this, and I took it to heart. It doesn't even have to be "religious" in nature, or altruistic - could just be "enlightened self-interest" and it still works, and it's lots more fun than trying to scheme your way to wealth and popularity. Just do good, the rest follows. Now we're setup for a discussion about the very important differences between kindness and love, but that's another thread, one I deal with daily online in video chats as is. Kindness will buy an addict another hit - love will show them a better way to not need that. It's harder work, but like most other cases, it also pays off better.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Thu May 09, 2013 2:44 pm

This is why I don't drink political kool-ade. It's all a sham.
MarchOfTyranny.jpg
Cartoon? No, this is how real life is.


OK, here's something fun. For at least a few places on earth, google earth has made time-lapse movies that go back around 10 years, so you can see the changes.
Let's hope they do more of this, it's pretty cool.
http://earthengine.google.org/#intro/ColumbiaGlacier
Once you get there, you can try some other places they've done this for. Growth of LA, mountaintop removal coal mining, deforestation in the Amazon - the heavy hand of man.

People who believe (or just say) there's no way we affect the planet - I refute it thus.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Sun Jun 09, 2013 3:17 pm

I rarely rate something must-see, but I will this one. This is the guy who blew the whistle on PRISM and a few other things. I believe him, having worked in those same places, lo, these many moons ago.
Smart, articulate, level-headed - just the kind of guy they like - and also the most dangerous.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2 ... view-video

My fear, as is his - is that it won't make any difference. It's simply too late now. All those "in authority" were certainly the first targets to gain blackmail power over them - and they are the ones who mainly care about dirt being exposed to the voters - I for example, did inhale, did do the chick etc - and I don't give a damn who knows. But a pol? Even a brain dead bureaucrat - and these guys aren't brain dead - would have the idea to get power over the purse strings right off - the obvious is inevitable, given the sorry state of human nature.

You can call what I just said conspiracy theory right up until it becomes revealed fact. You know, like the last 10 or so I've mentioned. I used to be highly paid myself as an intelligence analyst, presumably because I was good at it.

I made some nice trades on Naurus...back when I first figured this out, say a little over 10 years ago.

Edit, beat ZH by 20 min for once. The biggest batch of snide cynics are calling this guy the hero of the century en masse - and they might be right...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-0 ... ls-himself
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:03 am

Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Location: Floyd county, VA, USA

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