The daily link

It appears some of us are interested in the business of trading, hopefully for both fun and profit.
Here's a place to talk about that. I suggest two main categories. How to trade (timeless), and what are you trading now, and why, and how it turned out. Those tend to be missing from the pro boards, so pundits can have selective memory....but that's not all that is important. Being wrong is part of the game, and how to handle it and make money anyway is crucial, for just one example.
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The usual. Be nice, be informative, tell it like it is.

Re: The daily link - partisanship

Postby Doug Coulter » Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:40 pm

Here's what you show people who say "it's their fault" with some qualification to who constitutes "them". No, it's not Obama, Barney Frank, Bush, John Bohener, Chuck Shumer, Nancy Pelosi or any of a number of other losers who should be drawn and quartered after tar and feathering (Lloyd Blankfien comes to mind, along with a few others in the same business). It's ALL of them, and getting you to think it's Tweedledum vs Tweedledee just keeps one or the other clown running things.
GovLobby.jpg
The real picture


You see, it's not elected people running the show, hasn't been for quite a long time. Ever notice how every candidate promises change, then can't deliver any for some reason? You changed the wrong guys, guys.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Jan 17, 2012 1:11 pm

Good cartoon on whether we hate each other to death - or entertain ourselves to death. I don't think it's necessarily exclusive, we seem to manage both at once.

http://www.recombinantrecords.net/docs/ ... Death.html
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Thu Jan 26, 2012 6:01 pm

If things were sane, if markets depended on truth, or rational evaluation of fundamentals, this guy might be dead-on right - but perhaps if they were really rational, youtube would no longer be available and the world would be one big "world spring" revolution. You know, if the hundreds of trillions of bad CDS paper in dark pool trading was revealed so we could even see the fundamentals, and the fact that all the major banks book values are negative numbers at this point. But, given we have what we have, here goes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... UvmUtWm-HE


Reality seems to be more like this:
Flying-saucer.jpg


OF late, I've just been swing trading - too fast to log it on this board, by the time you could read it, the trade is done - I am usually trying to decide what to do right up to the mouse click, and don't do more possible trades than I do. Then more often than not, I'm calling it wrong and getting out pretty quick too. This is one tough market. What has been working for me is a barbell approach. I've held for example AGNC longer than perhaps any other issue for quite some time - nice dividend, and if you manage to buy in dips, usually showing some nice green cap gains. Gold, Silver - at present I'm down to core holdings in ETFs and physical, maybe I'm missing a move, but my system is flashing a fairly weak buy - then sell, then buy, over the last few days. I try to get the middles of the big moves, and there's usually time.
i also picked up a but of TLT the other day at the bottom of its range, and it's green now. Yes, I know our bonds can't go up, and must go down - eventually. It's still a part of diversity, and I am watching, meanwhile it pays out a little more than my cash account does and it's going up.

At the other extreme of the barbell, I've been trading in and out of some oddball things - short the market as a whole with SPXU, in and out of FAX and VXX, and managed to catch a really nice move on of all things, GM, which looks like stalling out just now. That's not a big one (too bad, it was good) so I'll probably just put on a trailing stop there and see what happens.

We've come up out of the last trading range, and are into the higher one we had before it. We could be about to really break out, or bounce of the top of the higher range, so I'm more short oriented than otherwise right now - we've got a lot of junk coming out of Europe that might push us back out of the land of unicorns at any time. The fundamentals really aren't all that great, and sooner or later, we notice that as a market. There's just no volume out there at the moment which is ominous enough - it allows for rather big swings on nothing but a whim, so it's a good time to be careful and watchful.

Good luck out there...
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:33 pm

A nice long one for the weekend. This won't be new to avid market followers, but perhaps some haven't seen this, and linking things here seems to keep them around longer than on most boards, so...Kyle Bass, in a situation where he's not being interrupted constantly and can just talk. Some real gems in here. THis is one of the few guys I really listen to. I don't always agree - with anyone - but only some people are even worth the effort to disagree with. Kyle is one of the better ones out there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd ... 573EB9F542


There are some really funny comments in the midst of this "doom and gloom porno". I'll try to get back and add those times so you can skip to them.

13:25 - if you think a 50% writedown is going to save Greece - you've lost your mind.
19:33 - debt to gdp vs war
20:42 - shit, barney, make it count!
42:00 - paper gold bugs. Straight talk, no bs "thanks, give me the gold"
47:00 ".gov - we're just going to export our way out of this. How? We're gonna kill the dollar."
48:40 Bernanke means "rates low forever" because he's stuck. Can't raise them - can't afford to roll our debt if he does.
59:40 the "give a shit" factor
1:01:10 "good-good?
1:04:30 "don't believe these governments"

In fact, just listening to this again, after some time - the guy is calling them pretty close.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:53 pm

A fun thread over at PMBug today. Wow, there were 3 posts while I was writing mine!
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f4/jim-sincl ... banks-500/
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:44 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos ... nt-2124452

Is a zerohedge article pointing out something almost everyone missed. It's more than possible, via a number of interesting tricky ways, for a private entity to print money legally through various derivatives. No, no one gets out printing plates (neither does the Fed) but the result spends just the same. When the crunch happened, one of the results was that much of this funny money went poof. As a result, while we are of course having a lot more inflation than reported, due to the Fed running the presses overtime - the numbers don't match up. That's because the numbers for "official" money are wrong due to this off books money.

And, they've done it again! We are now in a crazy flood of more private funny money, to the tune of hundreds of trillions worth, all waiting to go poof again as soon as some trigger happens (Euro?).

Just read and weep. Nothing whatever seems to have been learned. Short term gain, get the bonus, quit, who cares if the world burns after that.

You will very rarely hear me say "there ought to be a law" but I'm almost saying it now. The trouble with any law of course, is who watches the guards - and we already know they are corrupt, inept and so on.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Wed Feb 08, 2012 11:11 am

Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:31 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dow-passe ... al-picture

Markets actually down 50% compared to gold since the boom/crash. So all the cheerleading about new highs has to kind of be taken with a grain of salt. Or would that be gold? Lots of grains.
20120221_dow1_0.png
Dow/gold - real returns
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Mar 02, 2012 6:33 pm

Stunning presentation of a new theory of chart reading. I'm not so sure I buy into this yet, but it sure is intriguing and after the first few seconds, the music's nice too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... DW9KakdAmw

Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: The daily link

Postby Doug Coulter » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:18 pm

Government explained. Funny,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUS1m5MSt9k
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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