Re: Doug's log
Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 12:29 pm
Wow, what times we live in. I closed my huge BAC short today at 10.45, having taken it at about 11.40 so not bad for under 10 trading days, not bad at all, I wish all my trades made a percent a day. Looks like I closed the BTE short too soon, or should have re-opened it on yesterdays bounce, in woulda-coulda-shoulda land...Closed some but not all of FAZ on a pop, also very profitable, and as a result, other than some pretty tiny holdings for "watch this real close" purposes I'm out again. I don't know how much more this downturn has to go - how long its legs are, but I'm content to miss a little of it if that means reducing risk of another reflex or dead cat bounce that gets legs of its own. Better to hurry up and wait some more as I see things develop. For me, that's the hardest part of this game, actually. But the better I get at waiting, the better I do. If I see another reflex bounce that doesn't look realistic -- I'll use it as a chance to put on more shorts. If it does, I'll wait till it lasts more than one day to go long again on *anything*. It really looks kind of dire to me right now, but not enough so to make another big bet on that yet.
I really don't see any huge reason why things should get better at the main street level anytime soon. Oil's off the peaks for now, and might take a real dip if the Middle East sorts itself out for awhile (which is all it ever does it seems -- OK for awhile, then back to bad). But the long term picture there hasn't really changed, for either the ME or oil. I think, to my sorrow, that to the extent the Arab revolutions succeed, it's going to be a case of "here comes the new boss, worse than the old boss" in a short time, and where they fail the dictators will have learned how to make them fail better...so I don't see as much hope as (I'm glad) the participants seem to. I do think that the diffusion of western values via the net is going to help long term, but that's real long term. The very thing Al Queada hates -- our "corruption" of them, might make their lives better than now, even though I do view some of it as just plain corruption.
Greece is still a biggie, and it turns out that our "we can't stand regulation, Ben, and if we get more we won't lend, even though we're already not lending" banks have sold plenty of underpriced credit default swaps and are going to be on the hook for that soon enough. AIG all over again. And as goes Greece, so go a few others. And we'll maybe bail them out again.
And then there's our own debt, and even Ben's running scared about that one, I find it amazing the bond vigilantes haven't struck yet. We really are "special", however. It's just that we are less and less special as a "safe haven" these days, and the tipping point has to come if we don't change our ways -- and there's no sign of that one.
I find it amazing how people don't realize that even a democracy turns into a dictatorship via crony capitalism. Exactly how much choice did we have whether to bail out our new dictators, the banks? I missed the vote we had on that one but it will affect us and many future generations more than a mere world war...this one we LOST, and so far, in perpetuity, I see no obvious way out short of pitchforks, tar and feathers -- but here it would look more like Syria -- shots fired on the public if it went there. And unlike the Arabs, who run hot in a world of all black and white, our sheeple would just go back to their homes and couches when threatened if someone promised "change". Oh wait, it's already happened.
Now, the market doesn't bother with fundamentals unless forced - it's all a game of emotions, see yesterdays pop because not all the data was as bad as expected -- not good, just not as bad.
And we go up 3 digits on the dow, for a day. For no other reason than the bulls just couldn't wait any more, and nothing more horrible than the already terrible expectations happened -- ADD to the tits. Psychology! Learn it and get rich!
I really don't see any huge reason why things should get better at the main street level anytime soon. Oil's off the peaks for now, and might take a real dip if the Middle East sorts itself out for awhile (which is all it ever does it seems -- OK for awhile, then back to bad). But the long term picture there hasn't really changed, for either the ME or oil. I think, to my sorrow, that to the extent the Arab revolutions succeed, it's going to be a case of "here comes the new boss, worse than the old boss" in a short time, and where they fail the dictators will have learned how to make them fail better...so I don't see as much hope as (I'm glad) the participants seem to. I do think that the diffusion of western values via the net is going to help long term, but that's real long term. The very thing Al Queada hates -- our "corruption" of them, might make their lives better than now, even though I do view some of it as just plain corruption.
Greece is still a biggie, and it turns out that our "we can't stand regulation, Ben, and if we get more we won't lend, even though we're already not lending" banks have sold plenty of underpriced credit default swaps and are going to be on the hook for that soon enough. AIG all over again. And as goes Greece, so go a few others. And we'll maybe bail them out again.
And then there's our own debt, and even Ben's running scared about that one, I find it amazing the bond vigilantes haven't struck yet. We really are "special", however. It's just that we are less and less special as a "safe haven" these days, and the tipping point has to come if we don't change our ways -- and there's no sign of that one.
I find it amazing how people don't realize that even a democracy turns into a dictatorship via crony capitalism. Exactly how much choice did we have whether to bail out our new dictators, the banks? I missed the vote we had on that one but it will affect us and many future generations more than a mere world war...this one we LOST, and so far, in perpetuity, I see no obvious way out short of pitchforks, tar and feathers -- but here it would look more like Syria -- shots fired on the public if it went there. And unlike the Arabs, who run hot in a world of all black and white, our sheeple would just go back to their homes and couches when threatened if someone promised "change". Oh wait, it's already happened.
Now, the market doesn't bother with fundamentals unless forced - it's all a game of emotions, see yesterdays pop because not all the data was as bad as expected -- not good, just not as bad.
And we go up 3 digits on the dow, for a day. For no other reason than the bulls just couldn't wait any more, and nothing more horrible than the already terrible expectations happened -- ADD to the tits. Psychology! Learn it and get rich!