Re: Doug's log - sell
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 2:29 pm
Hectic day, and the sedatives aren't doing much good it seems. Forget the markets as a whole, look at GLD, SLV, MCP, CCJ, TMV, FCX...some wild action, and that's what I owned this AM (along with some JNK).
Sell. The good news is that after a couple of excruciating days holding silver and even buying more with big red numbers showing, I pulled it off and got out with a small profit. Further, on those and other trades, I made my monthly "dole" with a little extra.
The bad news is:
Stocks almost always go down the day after the Fed, and today is a doozy there in some odd ways. The markets are in such complete random panic that what's going to happen next is completely unpredictable even to the hair on the back up my neck (standing on end) and my gut (sinking feeling). Much less the crazy ticker action. Lots of people on both sides of every trade (good, someone's doing stuff and paying attention) but very little agreement on which side of the table to be on. I think this presages a move that could be quick and brutal. Question is, which way? If I was pretty sure of some near term down, I'd be getting short the markets overall. But I'm not, at least as of 3:30.
I prefer to keep a lotta dry powder when I feel like this. I "lucked into pulling one off" in SLV but I really shouldn't suggest doing that to anyone who (needs to) listens to suggestions.
Both I and Todd were right on this one, at least for now -- when I got out last, it was a good move after all, I think. That "get just one more" thing was cowboy-stupid and that was luck, not skill so much (except to hold a little longer and catch a bounce).
Same on MCP. I'll keep a "watch this" amount in my long term account...but my cash account -- gone, about 2 bucks a share -- a trip to the grocery store ++.
Still waiting for BTE to hit a buyable price again. That was the buy and hold stock of the entire recovery -- a five bagger. I did maybe half that trading it...but "who knew".
Sure there are philosophies that say, well, next year, holding this or that long would have been good. Thing is, they usually emit such statements after the fact, and ignore the ones they made that didn't pan out. And most who really know, rather than say later "who knew" if they're honest, either don't know or are saying get the heck out of commodities. What's funny is they may be wrong, but suddenly there are enough of them saying that to make it come true -- temporarily -- due to their followers. Funny old world. Long term of course, commodities are going to track inverse dollars and increasing demand, and the usual unexpected events (which of course you should expect some -- because assuming normal is bad never happens is optimistic, but not very accurate, there are always bumps in the road). Which is why I won't short them now, but I will simply get out for a bit.
Today we're seeing some crazy divergences -- OBV (on balance volume, and I plan a long post about that one as an indicator and how the errors various platforms make in computing it affect things) going up, while price dropping in the percent/minute speed -- or vice versa. Other indications that things are happening faster than even the quickest react to in a balance.
Since I'm where I'm at -- goals reached this month, all but the long term stuff (GLD, JNK (but going to kill that soon), CCJ == out with you. Yes, I'm keeping some 10 shares of this and that, it helps me watch and gives me records, but believe me, they wouldn't take us to the grocery store -- no money, no risk. There will be better times to be long or short, for now, it's time to watch a little fireworks, grinning with a lot of dry powder to jump on anything cool, but not too quick -- look before you leap for the moment, or maybe a goodly number of moments.
Time to put this to bed for awhile, and go do some more science, which is more fun lately, if not yet remunerative.
I'm in over 2/3 cash right this instant, and it might be a bit more by the end of the day.
Yes, I know I'm not getting to this timely enough for people to get the same trades. Sorry about that, you'd need a webcam to track this quick enough. Now, if I only had more guts....If I'd made all the exact trades I've made this year, there are people out there I wouldn't have beaten, but not many. And I'd be able to hang it up for the year and still not touch principle. Something I'm trying to learn the balance on myself.
Good luck out there, and stay nimble.
Sell. The good news is that after a couple of excruciating days holding silver and even buying more with big red numbers showing, I pulled it off and got out with a small profit. Further, on those and other trades, I made my monthly "dole" with a little extra.
The bad news is:
Stocks almost always go down the day after the Fed, and today is a doozy there in some odd ways. The markets are in such complete random panic that what's going to happen next is completely unpredictable even to the hair on the back up my neck (standing on end) and my gut (sinking feeling). Much less the crazy ticker action. Lots of people on both sides of every trade (good, someone's doing stuff and paying attention) but very little agreement on which side of the table to be on. I think this presages a move that could be quick and brutal. Question is, which way? If I was pretty sure of some near term down, I'd be getting short the markets overall. But I'm not, at least as of 3:30.
I prefer to keep a lotta dry powder when I feel like this. I "lucked into pulling one off" in SLV but I really shouldn't suggest doing that to anyone who (needs to) listens to suggestions.
Both I and Todd were right on this one, at least for now -- when I got out last, it was a good move after all, I think. That "get just one more" thing was cowboy-stupid and that was luck, not skill so much (except to hold a little longer and catch a bounce).
Same on MCP. I'll keep a "watch this" amount in my long term account...but my cash account -- gone, about 2 bucks a share -- a trip to the grocery store ++.
Still waiting for BTE to hit a buyable price again. That was the buy and hold stock of the entire recovery -- a five bagger. I did maybe half that trading it...but "who knew".
Sure there are philosophies that say, well, next year, holding this or that long would have been good. Thing is, they usually emit such statements after the fact, and ignore the ones they made that didn't pan out. And most who really know, rather than say later "who knew" if they're honest, either don't know or are saying get the heck out of commodities. What's funny is they may be wrong, but suddenly there are enough of them saying that to make it come true -- temporarily -- due to their followers. Funny old world. Long term of course, commodities are going to track inverse dollars and increasing demand, and the usual unexpected events (which of course you should expect some -- because assuming normal is bad never happens is optimistic, but not very accurate, there are always bumps in the road). Which is why I won't short them now, but I will simply get out for a bit.
Today we're seeing some crazy divergences -- OBV (on balance volume, and I plan a long post about that one as an indicator and how the errors various platforms make in computing it affect things) going up, while price dropping in the percent/minute speed -- or vice versa. Other indications that things are happening faster than even the quickest react to in a balance.
Since I'm where I'm at -- goals reached this month, all but the long term stuff (GLD, JNK (but going to kill that soon), CCJ == out with you. Yes, I'm keeping some 10 shares of this and that, it helps me watch and gives me records, but believe me, they wouldn't take us to the grocery store -- no money, no risk. There will be better times to be long or short, for now, it's time to watch a little fireworks, grinning with a lot of dry powder to jump on anything cool, but not too quick -- look before you leap for the moment, or maybe a goodly number of moments.
Time to put this to bed for awhile, and go do some more science, which is more fun lately, if not yet remunerative.
I'm in over 2/3 cash right this instant, and it might be a bit more by the end of the day.
Yes, I know I'm not getting to this timely enough for people to get the same trades. Sorry about that, you'd need a webcam to track this quick enough. Now, if I only had more guts....If I'd made all the exact trades I've made this year, there are people out there I wouldn't have beaten, but not many. And I'd be able to hang it up for the year and still not touch principle. Something I'm trying to learn the balance on myself.
Good luck out there, and stay nimble.