Doug's log

It appears some of us are interested in the business of trading, hopefully for both fun and profit.
Here's a place to talk about that. I suggest two main categories. How to trade (timeless), and what are you trading now, and why, and how it turned out. Those tend to be missing from the pro boards, so pundits can have selective memory....but that's not all that is important. Being wrong is part of the game, and how to handle it and make money anyway is crucial, for just one example.
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The usual. Be nice, be informative, tell it like it is.

Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Aug 05, 2011 1:00 pm

Exciting times indeed. The Chinese curse is upon us. But human nature still applies so we can still play and win if we don't act too much like the herd. I made a couple bets so far, one on shorting X at the open (that steel short) which has been both green and red so far - it's crazy day, and shorting VXX around noon, betting on some mean reversion, which is looking very nice at the moment.
I managed to catch VXX near the peak at 32 something, and my target there is about 28 (200 shares worth) on which I will close the trade almost no matter what. The X I expect to do OK over a longer term, so I'm not getting worried as that one changes from green to red and back. Boy should I ever have held my shorts on FXI (chinese index, mostly banks). Also BAC, which I didn't think could possibly spend much time under $10 before the government stepped in (or some big money saying, hey, it's trading under (cooked) book value!). Live and learn - figuring out where the denial really is might be key to some of this. Of course, I missed my shot to sell my short term PMs at a nice profit yesterday, but they'll be back -- this is the one case I'll feel OK about changing a trade into an investment (or a longer term trade). I won't double down though until after I see a daily close in the green, especially on silver - it tends to take longer to recover from a burning than gold. At the moment, we're seeing "dead cat bounce", "mean reversion" or whatever else you want to call that -- and EE would call it "ringing and overshoot" which is how I model it. In fact, I judge the emotional state of the market by the Q and F implied said signal. Both change with emotion, in general F goes up with nervousness, and so does Q, but Q seems to be more related to the violence (%/time) of the previous move.

More later.

I'm not sure where I should put this, maybe homework, but things are rushed now, maybe I'll move it later.
The VXX (standin for the VIX) is touted as a measure of "volatility", but as you can see in the plot below, that's not at all what it really is. In theory it measures the price of buying "insurance" in the form of options, or options premiums. In times of uncertainty, the price of insurance should be up -- no matter which way the uncertainty. But this plot against the SPY (market as a whole) reveals quite a bias on which type of insurance anyone ever seems to want. I post this for the logical people among us who might figure that in "market speak" volatility means the dictionary definition, risk means risk, and uncertainty means uncertainty when it comes to human beings. As you can see the VIX perfecly inverse mirror the market - well, is is a measure of volatility (eg change) or a measure of fear of change in a particular direction? The answer is in this plot, which looks a lot like this on any timescale. This speaks to a big skew in perception vs reality, and in calls vs puts out there, does it not? this looks more like a super-inverse SPY fund, like SPXU on steroids, not a measure of uncertainty (which should not have a directional bias).
Screenshot-1.png
Vix vs spy on the right


I drew some trend lines on the X plot, if it hits the top one and bounces, I double down on that short. On more refined analysis, I see the parabolic drop, so this may not have been a great trade, I was late to this party and should have done it when I called it (before the big tankage!). He who is lost, hesitates, I suppose. Courage!

By the way, I picked up enough ZSL to hedge about half my silver (which is about 1/4 the dollar value). So, if silver goes down for awhile, I show half as much loss, and if it goes up and seems like going up, well, I sell the ZSL at a loss smaller than my silver gains. Not perfect, just a hedge. I'm longer term bullish on silver, but for the short term....

Going into the close. Whoa, the only way I could document today would be with a movie. What a $%^# day, but I made money again. Lessee, did all the stuff above, closed the short on the VXX, since I'd made enough - and anytime you can make a few percent (in this case a couple hundred bucks) on a small trade in mere hours, you take the money and run, understand? Yeah, in the woulda coulda world it might have been better to hold, but just like that "volatility" thing above -- there's a skew in what gets looked at in hindsight too. I bought some PG in a dip - for the long term account, got some ZSL in both (not enough to fully hedge silver) and CEF went up more than ZSL went down -- there's some arbitrage available there in the timing, and picked up a decent chunk of TMV at about a buck less than it is this minute. Doubled down on the short of X, and....I dunno -- TGIF, it's miller time or very soon, and I'm glad this week is over - again.
Physics this weekend, forget this stuff. Some guy said today "no one can make money in this, get lucky or go fishing". Well, I don't want to come off boasting, but I kind of doubt this was luck. Moves got made fast, while watching a huge number of balls in the air (both my holdings statements doubled in length today) -- and every trade closed green, except me selling half my MCHP today (maybe this one shows up later on woulda coulda but it was getting near my pain limit).

Have a nice weekend, we'll see if the US is downgraded over the weekend. Sad to say, that would make me considerable money if not immediately followed by a statement from the bernanke that said QE3 was going to buy bonds massively before I can sell TMV....

I'm going to go play in the lab for a change, as soon as I re-stock the beer stash.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:31 am

Got up early today to be in on the show. Overnight, gold and silver zoomed, not up as much right now, but wow. My short on X is looking terrific - probably going to go ahead and cover that -- 6% in a few minutes of market-open (friday close to monday open) falls into "good enough" territory here and might be pushing "too good to be true" but I'll let the market open and see which way the wind continues to blow on that. Covered some of my silver hedge premarket, and will look to dump an equivalent amount of SLV at a good point, but I'm going to hang on to the gold trading positions I think.

Toddo sez

As a card-carrying contrarian, my first thought when I heard of the downgrade was "buy the news." But I've gotta tell you, that's seemingly consensus as I take the pulse of the Street. Everyone I spoke with -- to a person -- is looking to cover shorts or buy longs into this, which brings into question which dip should be bought, if any.

More later, here we go!

I note my normal favorite long tickers are slammed into what would normally be "back up the truck" territory. However, they're only good long in times of increase....although the dead cat bounce off this could be fierce enough to be worth looking at. I'll wait a little....usually a good move when not certain about something.

I've had worse Monday mornings. All this has gotten better since the screen shot, except for ZSL -- took a whipping on some of that, but it was the prudent thing to do I think. Covered most of that already.
Screenshot-5.png
Ahh, when positioned right, even a crash is nice!


Might be a nice thousand dollar (green!) day or better....just closed X short at $577 profit -- in less than one hour of market-open time. I'll take the money and run! (Steve Miller song)

Edit:

Well, that buy on TMV isn't looking real smart right now -- I fought the fed, and the fed won (so far). I kind of expected more help from the world which is too big for the fed to fight. I may hang on a bit. I note that USD is WAY up against CAD, and this is bombing CEF (gold and silver, physical) priced in USD. That may point to a buyable dip there, dunno. Just watching that one too for the moment. Hoping for a shortable collapse on the VXX again -- but may have to wait a day or few this time, this is really going into contagion mode for now.
And gosh, in the woulda-coulda world -- my shorts on BAC and FXI were obviously closed far too soon...I should have left some of those trades on the table. Lookee BAC is going to fail! Or reach honest valuation. Gov going to have to buy Countrywide back from them....upon which they get healthy (or not as sick) perhaps.

What a show. I got the beer, now where is that boy scout popcorn I bought? (it's overpriced to support the scouts, but it really is top notch stuff).
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:43 pm

Sorry to get to this so late -- the show is ongoing. Trimmed most of my longs, except gold. At the time of this post the word is "bloodbath". Asia is in general farther down already than we manged all day here. Chinese CPI came out "hot". Gold way way up in Asia, silver flat. Everything else tanking hard. So we'll be gapping down tomorrow almost for certain. The big funds couldn't get out in time - that was the flash selloff at our close.

This is really serious, people. No joke, here we go again, think the last crash repeating - or worse. The governments are not going to be able to QE out of this -- too big to fail, and too big to bail. Expect some rule changes (like no shorting) coming up quick. I don't think the bernank can do diddly here, no matter what he says.

In other news, at the current burn rate, we'll hit our temporary debt cap in a couple months, before the next rise is supposed to be scheduled by the super congress. Timmy has had some issues keeping to the desired rate of outlay -- quite a lot of debt had to be paid but something else must have come up. My source only has a total, not details, which I'll look to come out, or be smothered by the other news.

The only bright spot is gold, up right now to 1746 in Asia. Hang Seng down 6.5% so far, and most of their day is yet to come.

Glad I didn't have much in play and that was mostly PMs. Crazy how fast a house of cards can fall. You'd think the wind resistance would slow it up little, since cards are light but have a lot of surface area.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:43 am

Well, what a difference a few hours makes. When I went to bed last night at about 1 Am, it was looking like the end of the world was imminent. This AM, not so much. We call this turnaround Tuesday for a reason I suppose. A little jiggery-pokery over in the Euro zone seems to have calmed things (except in London, which is still on fire). Or was it that admonition from the Chinese?
No one really knows. As someone said yesterday -- "Are the companies really worth 20% or so less than they were 48 hours ago? Rubbish." I agree -- the fundamentals didn't radically change that fast. Which sort of gives the lie to the statement that fundamentals rule the markets, eh? Nope, mostly emotion, or a sudden discovery that what you thought the fundamentals were was wrong.
I rest my case -- this is all happening in the lower brain of monkeys.
In just a few minutes, we have gone from opening up 120 on the dow, back down to 2 as I type. A floor trader says if and only if we can hold some up and volume is this real - else down we go further. So, yeah, time for me to be on my toes, be back later.

later 10:50 AM

Well, a bit of whipsawing. Silver just can't catch a bid, but for silver, that's not so abnormal. It's sitting around 36 now, which was may downside target, so if it holds that and starts to rise from there, perhaps we have a buying or doubling down opportunity. But personally, I'd be waiting to see what happens after the Fed today before making a move. VXX is a tempting short, one that would be nicely in the money had I done it at open, but...same thing. Too much uncertainty and all too easy to get slaughtered at present.

Of course, my favorite longs, BTE and FCX, took a nice bounce -- one reason for them being my faves after all. But again....I'd counsel caution as you'd not want to buy them unless you think things pick up from here worldwide. I have my doubts...but I'm watching with hopefully an open mind.

Edit:
Here's a chart for today which explains my somewhat heretical way of trading gold. To make it short and sweet, I do this as a split personality. I have core holdings, not traded or only extremely rarely, while I also have a trading position I put on and take off in an attempt to capture and increase actual purchasing power when gold is for the moment, a high-beta thing. I never short the other side for gold, though. It's far more dangerous to do than with other things, as one little bit of bad news going viral (and usually over the weekend) can make it zoom unexpectedly quite easily -- and this is one of the justifications for that core holding level -- you catch that automatically.
Screenshot-6.png
Gold, one year, trend channels, 50 sma


As you can see, long term (or for some, middle term), gold has been in an upward trading channel. This justifies having some you just keep "forever", while of course realizing that to get any good out of this - you'll someday want to change it back to cash. However, gold makes some pretty big swings inside this channel, which I've imperfectly defined with the hand drawn blue lines.
For that portion of things, you try to buy the dips and sell the rips. "We" bought when it last crossed the 50 sma going up. Historically, this has been a really good indicator, and easier to use than trying to pick bottoms (usually). My usual technique has then been to sell when it bounced off the top bollinger band, or the top of the trend channel. Look where we are now. My heretical take here is it might be time to take some off the table -- gold went parabolic due to fear (the fear premium) and fear can only be maintained so long without adrenaline burnout. At some point soon we probably return to the mean trend -- so why not take the money, and buy it back (but now you could afford more!) when it bounces off the other end? This has been a wash-rinse-repeat money maker for me for years. you can't go by the chart alone, you do have to take news and economic fundamentals into some account to fine tune this, but as you can see, over just one year this has done pretty well. When you get a concave-up rise, the end is always near, nothing can keep that up indefinitely, so it's only a matter of when at that point, unless in fact it is "the end of the world as we know it" this time. That call is a ways off in my opinion -- it's bad, but not the end, yet.

Now, might there be times to even "trade" your core holdings? You betcha. There's talk of a gold bubble, and most agree that there was one ....of course you darn well should have sold the top of that! Look how long it would otherwise have taken to get your money and/or purchasing power back -- the underlying trend of dollar down in "stuff" never stopped. That saw about gold holding value long term means "over several human lifetimes" which ain't what we got to work with here.
Screenshot-7.png
Longer term gold and silver

I couldn't easily pull a chart back to the '80s, but most agree gold was in a bubble then. This looks nothing like that - silver is considerably more suspect in that regard. But you can see what happened to gold between the middle of 2008 and 2009. Was it really smart to hold through a 60% loss (in still-deflating dollars)? This is utter heresy to gold bugs, but the numbers speak to me here.

Had you made just that one trade -- sell near the top, buy near the bottom (which I guess is past the attention span of the bugs, or perhaps their ability to pay attention at all, or the time over which they've "had religion) -- and going forward had 60% more gold appreciating in your account, I'd think you'd be happier -- and you'd have a reason to boast, since rather than sitting there passively depending on luck, you took positive action for the good and "earned" your increase. For better or worse, there is no other forum on earth I can say these things on. I suppose that's true for anyone else taking a rational view of this, so -- here's my value-added for today (or some of it). I'd point out that if you'd traded successfully with your increased cash while out of gold, you might have done even better, but frankly, during that time, I myself got head-faked and lost some money...

I note that on the shorter timeframe, selling at the beginning of May, and waiting till the beginning of July when it recrossed the 50 day sma - is an example of the same thing. And you had money to play with in between. Now that I have more experience, I did trade other things during the interval with success...

End of day:

Well, I got myself raped. I took my own advice and sold some of my gold because I saw this at the close (about 4pm here).
Screenshot-8.png
Gold futures, world

Should have known better -- look what happened as soon as after hours trading stopped in the US. Rats! Yeah, I made money but...
I had also bet against the Fed, via TMV. You'd think I'd learn. But I lost about 10% on that when my stops tripped. That trade keeps not working until it does, I was early, which in this game is a synonym for "dead wrong" and don't you forget it. I thought about, but didn't sell some silver and CEF -- that latter one has foxed me before, because it has a weird and different time lag than the more direct ETFs that reflect (sorta) the current instant price of the metals. That one is for people playing the fear trade -- it's mostly for those who insist on having a sure title to the underlying metal, not just a trading vehicle, and it's maintained by people I trust more than the US government, which would be our pals to the north.

I had to run out right at the close today. I saw Brian selling silver sheets (for activation tests) cheap on fusor.net, and checked my paypal balance to see if we could do a deal to ship some with the standard counters -- nice to make absolutely everything possible standard, right? Well, within seconds of logging off paypall, I got a phishing email about "your paypal account needing attention". Since it contained spelling errors and the url they wanted me to click didn't look right when I rolled over it, I figured I had trouble. I got real sure of trouble when I traced the email back to an ISP with only 16 addresses in Poland, owned by a Pieter in Warsaw. So, I had to rush down the the bank and put a hold on the account I have tied to paypal, stat. Then come back, and alert paypal (who will probably ignore this) to the scam. Now how this guy knew this -- but had a legit email address on me, but not one paypal knows....That's work for tonight. I think it might have been better to prevent a theft than to try and get my money back later (the checking account had plenty in it). Too bad Poland is kinda out of range for my big .50 bmg....if in fact that wasn't just the place where I lost track in the traceback I could manage.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:18 am

Just grinnin, sittin on that (slightly reduced) stack of gold...
Screenshot-9.png
The current price is an interesting number, eh?
While the pundits are all expressing big surprise about the continuation of the downtreand in the markets, that little rally was just the classic dead-cat bounce. I learned this in pain and losses last crash. Don't fall for the head-fakes! That was more an opportunity to get short (or sell off some more things at reduced losses). That's just grimy old in-the-pits trading wisdom, this is classic and following the normal pattern pretty closely. Oh, and that gold dip -- SocGen is selling gold below spot to raise cash, the sneaky French were perhaps in worse shape than the "stars of bad" in the rest of Eurozone, and simply kept hiding it for longer.

The above is why you only listen to the pundits to catch the mood of the dumb money, not for advice, ever. Remember, they have to create news no matter what, most are talking their or someone else's book, and all too often they use "no one saw this coming". Hello no one, nice to meet you -- be that guy. The no one who did see it coming.

Didn't do any trading. Up over $2k on PM's.

Titanic.jpg
What can I say?
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:52 pm

And....it's gone. Lightened up considerably on gold today. Might have been a mistake but it's tough to watch huge profits evaporate, so I put some back in the bank. "Sell the rips" as they say.
I'm guessing of course that CME will keep raising collateral requirements till they beat it down enough to be worth buying again soon. Just like silver in May.



During the downturn, I noticed that on one day, we had an almost perfectly straight down day. Not much gap, then after that just this perfectly flat decline with almost no wiggles in it. Right after that the floor dropped away. On some retrospection and analysis, it looked like the big boys were slowly and carefully getting out -- that's a sign. They were doing it while jiggling the markets as little as possible for their size. Today I see the opposite. I'd like to believe that portends a big zoom tomorrow, and it's tempting to get long here, but it looks like I'm going to be saved by the bell on that. Maybe for the best, just thought I'd point that out. It would be more true to form if we tanked tomorrow, since that would keep the pattern here looking just like the 3 previous times we did this dump. So, if you don't know what to do, don't do something just to be doing it!
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:35 pm

Ive resolved to do nothing today till at least near the close. I think there will be a selloff at the end, as no one sane wants to be exposed long over the weekend, given conditions right now. I might pick up a little stuff then -- contrarian. BTE hopped up all too much for my taste, but maybe I'll get another crack at it. Copper also reversed to the upside, maybe having put in a low. But all those kinds of longs are predicated that it's going to get better for at least long enough for swing trading, and well, I dunno. Till then, here's a little conversation on ZeroHedge.

by Kina
on Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:42
#1554395

The wilder the swings the closer we are to crashing out, like the drunken driver that keeps over-correcting, not in control, just a matter of a very short time before he crashes.


TPTB are having trouble keeping harmonic reinforcement dampened, in fact their equal and opposite correction to the dips is in phase and enhancing the harmonic, until it contains enough power to break free of control.

* reply

by DCFusor
on Fri, 08/12/2011 - 12:27
#1554531

Yup, all basic signal processing theory. If you could make a Nyquist/Bode plot it would all be a little clearer. Ignoring the long term (low frequency) trends, you could imagine all the robots/algos as either gain (of either polarity) or signal generators. Add some time delay to the networks, partly created by a body of slower traders and their psychology, partly by speed of light issues, and partly by governments (who are also signal generators). Pretty complex "circuits" but not past all understanding.

In such a situation, it's really easy to make an oscillator, chatotic if the poles and zeros are complex enough (bad pun, sorry). Or something merely divergent.

Having seen my signal processing students, who are in the same IQ/knowledge class as the current crop of quants, fail to be able to close much simpler loops to stability, I now imagine them trying to do it under condtitions where a lot of other amateurs at this are also allowed to hook into the same circuit -- and with very predictable and now realized, results.

And going way back in the day, anyone who has ever hung scope probes on a lot of nodes and looked at time responses of systems with an impulse or noise injected will recognize these patterns the markets show very easily. We have them all, from the classic ringing and overshoot, to buildup of oscillation that gets quenched by a nonlinear element, the whole mess of impulse reponses a complex nonlinear circuit can produce.

I find this observational ability quite useful in my trading. I never knew what I was training for - but this is it. All my old, predictable and not so predictable friends I see every day, it's kind of cool, actually.

The long term consequences most know (and they're not just consequences of this alone). But till then -- I have no other choice -- I ride the waves and make hay while the sun shines.

//////////////////////
I know there are a few smart ones there (not the majority) -- so I'm trolling with that as a Turing test to see who they might be.
PS: While my core holdings are now dragging down my other numbers, looks like I could have called gold worse than I did...not bad even if I am patting myself on the back.
Screenshot-10.png
Recent gold

Gold down even with dollar down. That's real. Not to worry, there will be another cycle.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:41 pm

Yesterday might have been a buyable dip on gold. At least, it's up today from there and looking like heading for 1800 again. On the other hand, looking at a year chart on ino.com (I just like their year charts for gold and the ones for oil and dollar too) it would seem time for a larger pullback. A few quiet news days would do that, so maybe I missed nothing. I didn't do anything Monday, except watch. And here we are on turnaround Tuesday, with my favorite long candidates back down -- but they sure did bounce hard at the first excuse.

This one comes down entirely to "do you think things will get better, or even just stabilize from here?" I'd go for BTE and FCX in a big way if I was sure they'd last long enough for a couple week swing trade at least. But I don't have conviction there at the moment, so I'm still watching. Might dip my toe ever so lightly into the water if I get my target lows to buy on, though. Hurry up and wait again!

Well, I bit. I bought a couple hundred shares each of BTE and FCX, almost right at the close (did bte in an earlier dip and it's up 30 bucks total, fine). While they could dip more, and will in a major downturn, the amount I actually expect would not make me sell them, but double down. I have no real idea if things do get better from here, other than that humans often find ways to muddle through.

Bulk of today's money came from the core PM holdings....maybe I missed a bet there on the dip. We might get another, so I'm not going to lose sleep on that.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:02 pm

You gotta love them hindsight glasses. Now that the site is back up (yeah, I went and complained to the ISP - and might make a move there), I can say this AM made those buys on FCX and BTE look really smart -- for awhile. Applying double-hindsight, I should have sold them right then too. Gold and silver are bumpily pushing up, so that was a buyable dip the other day.

I guess my quest for something that has a nice positive return and is "safe" for my IRA is well, "ongoing" (I couldn't find a good pun on transitory, to use the fed's words)....Even PG is dancing around profit and losses, and MCHP not so great at all. Looking at the patterns in the S&P, this looks like an ongoing bear, at least for awhile, with the odd head-fake rise in the middle of a general turn back down. If it doesn't make a convincing multi day bounce soon, I'm back to "short or out" again on all but gold...sigh.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:04 am

Well, you might make more money doing what I say than copying what I do, dunno. I'd picked up a little BTE and FCX a few days back and boy did they get hammered this week. So, I doubled down just now and picked up this AM's big rise, nice. Unless the end of the world as we know it is coming soon, I should be able to exit these trades at the top of the trading channel for good profit, even though the channel is somewhat descending. Might require some more guts...
I dumped CEF (I have a love-hate response to that one) but kept my gold and silver -- but added tight stops. These are both looking close enough to that concave up situation that always means a top is near, so...be ready for that one. Looks like for the last few, both have traded way higher overnight in Asia etc, then come right back down in US trading, so we seem to be in charge of that for now.

Again, this is risk reward management. When my "regular" stocks were tanking, the Pms, were zooming -- and I was still showing daily green except for yesterday. I expect that situation to reverse, and still show green. A sort of diversification, but not in the normal sense, as I move money between the two classes frequently, trying to do the old buy low, sell high gig.
This is hard for most - selling your winners to buy your losers, but over time it works really nice. Use those trading range channels -- draw them on your charts over a few months periods and try and buy the bottoms (or a little after once a bounce starts) and sell the tops (a little after the peak, unless you have too good to be true profits -- in that case, sell NOW, and take risk off the table).

I would have benefited from that one right after I bought BTE and FCX at close one day, and had ~ 2% gain the next open. When you make that much in 10 minutes of trading time, it's time to put the bird back in the hand almost always. 100% chance of 2% is a ton better than a 70% chance of more -- and a 30% chance of losing even when on paper those numbers don't quite work.
The reason is mean reversion -- it's not a random signal and a quick spike up is often followed by a return to the mean trend (at which point you can just buy again if it's a good trend).
Instead, I held through some pretty scary red numbers, and doubled down to get a lower cost basis. That's a cowboy thing to do, sometimes it works. But it's why you in general don't back up the truck at first -- you might do better adding some more exposure later, and that's why I split up my money into "units" or "chunks" for this -- always nice to have some dry powder if that "pearl of great price" shows itself. Since I've been trading those two for a long time and know they are well run yet at lows for them -- I have faith that this can be an OK swing trade lasting a little longer than usual. Hope isn't a viable strategy, but in this case history says these are good and trading about as low as they ever go even when times are pretty turbulent. Sure they go down farther in "end of world" conditions, but the can kicking by governments seems to be working some for now....
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Doug Coulter
 
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Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:05 pm
Location: Floyd county, VA, USA

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