Doug's log

It appears some of us are interested in the business of trading, hopefully for both fun and profit.
Here's a place to talk about that. I suggest two main categories. How to trade (timeless), and what are you trading now, and why, and how it turned out. Those tend to be missing from the pro boards, so pundits can have selective memory....but that's not all that is important. Being wrong is part of the game, and how to handle it and make money anyway is crucial, for just one example.
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The usual. Be nice, be informative, tell it like it is.

Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:02 am

Well, SLV tripped some tight stops this AM, which was fine - I was up double digits on it anyway. Gold went way up overnight, then back down, interesting that someone had to sell quite a lot at 3 AM at prices not yet seen in the US during trading hours...The safety stocks are going up at present. I'll probably look to trim those sometime today. I kind of doubt the results of the Jackson Hole meeting are going to make everyone real happy, and I'd rather just be out for the turmoil myself (though it will be a money making opportunity for whoever calls it right).

Screenshot-12.png
Gold real time Gadaffy selling?


You can't surf on a pond - no waves.
Big waves are good, if they're predictable, you can surf.
Hurricanes and waterspouts send even the best surfers indoors to make a Margarita -- there will be better weather tomorrow.

NSYE was down with computer issues this AM. The joke is the new IPO must have been named "DROP TABLE Equities;".

After the close:
I took the MCHP trade off the table today, at a loss. It had recovered some after I'd doubled down on it, and even had a so-so rising OBV, but...gone. Better to take a small loss now than a much larger one later. FCX I didn't touch, even though it zoomed, because it was still red (and I had a lot of it) and the buying on it was intense all day long. So, fingers crossed that "turnaround Tuesday" carries over a couple more days, and maybe I can get out green. PG I'm still holding, as its real green, and going as I thought it would, not surprises there - caught it right at the bottom of its trading range, and now it's mean-reverting, nice. Hoping to be able to hold that long enough to get the divvies on it. I also held BTE, which like FCX zoomed but not all the way to green, also pays nice divvies, and went from big negative to positive OBV today, looking stable all the while. That prospect of Libya coming back online with oil soon is bogus, of course. It will take them awhile. As ZH has been showing, both sides of the media reporting on that are telling outright obvious lies about the true situation, so it might be best to wait on that. And BTE has nice monthly divvies too. Still trying to build up a litte bit of stuff that looks like investing rather than swing trading here, but this just might not be the best time to be making the attempt.

I kept some token PM's just because...But we're seeing a fairly fierce pullback in gold now. One wonders -- was the runup really because Chaves demanded his physical, and the rumor that the funds don't really have the gold to back the paper is true? Or was it just the rumor. Was the other rumor that Libya's gold is the real reason that NATO suddenly got religion and pushed the issue to victory, but Qaddafi managed to sell a bunch last night true? No telling. Gold bugs are known to be pretty "out there" -- in fact, pretty far past tinfoil hat types who claim that 911 was faked, or they know who got Kennedy. Thing is, there are enough of them to make the rumors self fulfilling as relates to gold pricing. Crazies with money. In fact, one reason I play the PM's is because fanatic crazies are actually a bit easier to predict than the run of the mill human -- and these are noisy about it, so finding out what they're thinking is easier than for example the guys who trade NFLX, LULU and BIDU.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:28 pm

Well, since I admit my mistakes (I make plenty so it's easy!) I guess I also get to say -- I nailed the last few calls on PMs. Lookee out below! I'm guessing we'll get a buyable dip on them sometime soon, but despite the rather quick fall in gold, I don't think we're quite there yet. This is one of "those". Headlines in the MSM today say "gold is dropping because they realize there will be no QE3 right now", while other headlines are saying "look out, when there's no QE, stocks are gonna really tank". Well, which is it -- have people priced out QE3 or not? Or did only gold bugs price out QE3? Frankly, I can't think of an easy way to tell, other than by looking at the tape. Given the mooing and hoof scraping and jostling, I'd guess this herd's about to stampede -- but which way?

Times like this I prefer to just be out, and catch the middle of the big move that's probably coming if I can, but right now I have some pesky in the red stocks that I'd rather not just lock a loss in on. So the bet is...hold and hope they don't lose more... which IS a bet, hopefully a good one. Obviously a small loss can become a large one, and do it in a gap you can't trade, even. In this case, having bought both real near their lows for a long time -- I'm hoping they'll hold "resistance" and then return to their trajectory. Having said that, if I get a pop into the green on any of them, I will be lightening my load some. I'll take some upside risk off the table to also take off the downside risk. I wouldn't do that in every market I've traded in, but this one is flat nuts -- it's all robots at the moment, and I do "human emotions" not robot algs from this side (I write them well however).

So, sit and wait time, once again. We all know Friday is going to be crazy, and tomorrow might be as well.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:15 am

Sorry to have been lax here, been busy, especially this AM. My gut told me to get long FAZ (eg short banks) yesterday at the close, and yup -- for once the sucker was dead on and I did something about it -- closed that trade already, up nearly $5 share, whoo hoo! "We're in the money!". I've been picking up some more staid longs, PG, V, T (oops) BTE, FCX, and of course they're getting hammered today. I'm at what I'd like to call core holdings for those and don't want to sell. I won't if I can stand not to, might buy more, but...but....but...all those are dependent on things basically going well worldwide and it doesn't look like the US with the lousy jobs and manufacturing print, or the issues with the banks, means things are going well for awhile, so maybe I'll just look for more shorts. FXI would have been a good one, yesterday, that is...I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for something that looks like it hasn't gone in the tank - yet.

Moves like this, you can't hop on board after the open, you have to have been ready the night before. Don't chase this kind of thing, you'll get hammered. had you bought SPXU at the open, you'd be in the red currently for example (at 10:15 anyway).

The only things I see doing decently for a little while are the good companies (see above) that aren't in some index or etf. Everything else is going to be too dragged around by a market that looks like making a new low soon. I hate that the big sector and index ETFs are causing all this correlation - it makes your due diligence less useful. You'd like to be long best of breed in a sector, and when it's time to short, go short the worst. But the correlation means they all tend to move together, good with the bad. "Financial innovation" again. Guys who can't be bothered to learn to trade and make money honestly create these ETFs and live on fees risk-free, which is a fairly good definition of "parasite". Bad enough, but they make the host sick too.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:28 pm

Well, tuesday looks "interesting" as in "blood bath" if we follow the Yurp-peons down. Gold up, silver up (neither that much right now), everything else down, some way down. DAX down over 5%, most of the rest of the world down more than 2%. Ouch. I guess that speech by the prez didn't blow any skirts up (including mine)....so...It's going to be a dicey open. If the not very secret Fed Plunge Protection team is on the ball (but hey, they're the government and only had a day's warning) then we might have a chance to get out of longs....And maybe even get shorty-er than normal, as this looks like one where, well, fighting the fed might actually work - they're big, but this is the whole planet we're talking about on the other side of the ring. It's going to be a get up at 5 am day for me to ponder any late breaking news and overseas market action -- after all, the fed might win again and we'd have our Turnaround Tuesday once more. I really don't trust it this time though and will sell into any rallies and get short I believe, unless some compelling good news comes along. Lessee, what could that be?

Turns out the German election that repudiated Merkel for bailing out Yurp was a joke, and
Italy's stock market wasn't really occupied by protesters, while they stopped trading in bank shares that were limit-down, and
Benanke found enough change in his couch to not only pay off our debt, but Spain's too, and
Dexia is really ok, while Belgium gets a government at last, and,

Well, I think you get the idea. There are actually people out there projecting a huge rally into year end - 20% or more. I'll wait and see, thanks. I can miss a few percent of that and still have a nice ride, and 1-2 days of middlin gains won't fool me this time, though I might trade any attractive waves I see -- in either direction.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:40 pm

And gosh, on the list above, I completely forgot a few things, but we know the story. I recently put something on another thread here about our current context, and just like before the real crash, when people were mostly in denial, it looked just like now. For the moment, here's an observation that might be worth something. Gold. Note the sudden drops, the first when the Swiss did their thing....the second???
Screenshot-24.png

It seems gold normally trades higher in asia than here, so most of that is "normal". But those two steep drops? Some huge amount (Swiss? Libyan? US?) coming on the market faster than the Chinese were buying it? Something's up.
I did pick up a little more on the pullback.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:32 pm

And here we have a huge dump again, second consecutive day right at 6 am on the dot. So, where can I buy gold at 6am, then sell it around midnight. Lately you could coin money doing that.
Screenshot-25.png
Gold dump again . why do it when it makes the price drop? Hmmmm.


As luck would have it (one of those hair on the back of your neck things, not skill this time) I went very short thursday into the close, the usual suspects - FAZ, QID, SPXU and so on. Friday was thus not so bad a day for me, whew. Put on some more, while closing a few -- I got a bit more selective about it. I dislike hoping for bad news over the weekend, but my longs were really getting pounded, the other side of trading high beta stocks like FCX and BTE -- just like the rest, they go down quicker than up. But yesterday, even PG tanked (for it). Only the already pounded T didn't do much more. I was a wet rag by the close anyway. Gheesh, I should take a break from this. When you win but feel like you lost anyway...
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Re: Doug's log

Postby Doug Coulter » Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:02 am

Sigh, interesting day -- lots of looking but little action on my part. I have some long things in the red, and have been in and out of shorts, doing well enough that way to keep the account(s) balance even -- pretty good, but a dance. Hope the market doesn't ramp up on hot air again tomorrow, or perhaps don't care much - hedged somewhat.

I saw this on ZH and it was too good to lose into their very fast stream.

chindit13

Your Last 24 Hours Explained

The Greek ship of state once again threatened to slip beneath the waves. Just when it looked as if Poseidon would finally call his children home, China took a back door (Greek Style) approach to the EU Pap smear and hinted that they would be buying Italian sovereign debt. Russia soon followed and supposedly Putin its own bid. Brazil fired a shot from the wings. Only India, which needed to raise rates for the twelfth time in the current cycle, and who needed to intervene in the FX market to prevent the rupee from falling to a two year low above 48 to the dollar, failed to join. Rather than announcing the Apocalypse, these three horsemen rode to stop the Apocalypse from happening. They were, however, one BRIC short of a full load.

Later in the European day, the Greek PM did a three way phone job with Angela “Medusa” Merkel and Nicolas “Siren Song” Sarkozy, with Sarkozy no doubt playing Lucky Pierre. If the legendary sovereign savior named Jeffrey had joined the call, there would have been no doubt whatsoever it was phone Sachs. Instead, we can only think the unthinkable. Tim Geithner dared to offer his advice, telling Cramer on CNBC that Europe and the world could not afford another Lehman moment, failing to note that the world could not afford the first Lehman moment.

In the end, if Europe is to be a Europe greater than what Charlemagne envisioned, which ironically was Europe minus the PIIGS and the former Eastern Bloc, Greek life will have to imitate Greek Art, or at least rhyme with it, and in a rough imitation of Sophocles’ Oedipus Rex, Greece will have to be married with the Vaterland.
Posting as just me, not as the forum owner. Everything I say is "in my opinion" and YMMV -- which should go for everyone without saying.
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Doug Coulter
 
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